Road to Tampa: Breaking down all 4 Women’s NCAA Tournament regions

The most compelling three weeks of the college sports calendar are upon us.

Over the next 21 days, all the elements indigenous to March Madness — high drama and heartbreak, tension and spectacle — will play out on parquet floors across the country as the 68-team NCAA women’s tournament unfolds. Though champions and heroes and polarizing figures vary annually, suspense remains the event’s common denominator. As parity prevails in this sport, no one can say for sure how things will end.

But at least we know where it will end: This year, all brackets lead to the bay area.

The Women’s Final Four will be staged April 4 and 6 at Amalie Arena. Complementing the two soldout nights of action will be a litany of ancillary events (concerts, parties, seminars, interactive game areas) showcasing the weekend and celebrating the sport.

But before that, there are upsets to monitor, unlikely heroes to emerge, dark horses to track. Here then, is a closer look at all four women’s regions, complete with compelling story lines, stats, possible upsets and our predictions of which teams will reach Tampa:

Spokane Regional 1

LSU guard Kailyn Gilbert (16), a former Tampa Prep star, will lead the No. 3 seed Tigers into Regional 1 action of the NCAA women's tournament on Saturday. [ DAVID YEAZELL | AP ]

Best opening-round matchup: No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 Harvard. The Ivy League was no slouch, and Harvard (24-4) won both the league regular season and tournament titles. The Crimson also boast a Big Ten foe (NCAA qualifier Indiana) among their quality wins. The Spartans (21-9) struggled down the stretch, but remain one of the top-15 scoring teams in the country (79.5 points per game).

Upset alert: No. 11 George Mason over No. 6 FSU. The Patriots (27-5) led Maryland (a 4 seed in this field) in the fourth quarter of a 10-point loss in late November. The Patriots also rank 21st nationally in 3-point percentage (36.5), and we know what a great equalizer the long ball can be.

Florida State guard Ta'Niya Latson enters the tournament as the nation’s top scorer (24.9 points per game). [ THURMAN JAMES | ZUMAPRESS.com ]

Best story line: Though she graduated from Plantation American Heritage and was named Florida Miss Basketball for 2022, FSU junior guard Ta’Niya Latson cut her basketball teeth on the hard-knocks side of Hawaii. One of seven kids raised in a military family, her dad regularly took her to the Army base in Hawaii where he was stationed so she could play pickup games with the men there. “It made me the player that I am,” Latson told ESPN. A three-time first-team All-ACC pick, Latson enters the tournament as the nation’s top scorer (24.9 points per game).

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Local tie: LSU junior Kailyn Gilbert, the Tigers' fourth-leading scorer (9.7 points per game), attended Tampa Prep her first three high school seasons (2018-2021) before finishing at IMG Academy. As a Terrapins sophomore, Gilbert averaged a double double (32.1 points, 11.2 rebounds) and was named the state’s Class 3A player of the year.

Surreal stat: While her blocked-shot total (85 in 29 games) is to be expected, UCLA 6-foot-7 star Lauren Betts has nearly as many assists (78). The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Betts' assists total ranks third on the team. She leads UCLA in scoring (19.7 points per game) and rebounding (9.9).

Our pick for Tampa: UCLA. For sentimentalists with no rooting interest in one team, consider the Bruins (30-2), widely deemed the best women’s program never to reach the Final Four. UCLA won the AIAW national title in 1978, but never have reached the final weekend in the NCAA era. Since 1999, UCLA has made six trips to the Sweet Sixteen and two to the Elite Eight. They’re a No. 1 seed this year for the first time.

Birmingham Regional 2

South Carolina and coach Dawn Staley were denied the No. 1 overall seed. Good luck to the rest of this region. [ TRACY GLANTZ | The Island Packet ]

Best opening-round matchup: We’re presuming No. 11 Columbia (23-6) gets past its play-in game vs. Washington and faces No. 6 West Virginia in the Round of 64. One of the three Ivy League teams to make the tournament, the Lions are 42nd in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, and they own wins against NCAA qualifiers Ball State and Florida Gulf Coast.

Upset alert: No. 12 Green Bay over No. 5 Alabama. The Phoenix are one of the nation’s hottest teams (see surreal stat below). The Crimson Tide, meantime, have lost three of their last five, including a two-point defeat against Florida in their SEC tournament opener.

Best story line: Following the disintegration of its former conference (Pac-12) and the loss of three standouts to the transfer portal, No. 14 seed Oregon State — an Elite Eight qualifier in 2024 — seemed destined for irrelevance. A 1-5 start didn’t help matters, nor did a four-game January skid. But the Beavers (19-15) caught fire in the West Coast Conference tournament, winning three games in as many days, including a 63-61 semifinal upset of top-seeded Gonzaga. “For this group to cover the ground that they did this year, from Day 1 until now, is absolutely remarkable,” coach Scott Rueck said.

Oregon State players celebrate after defeating Portland in the final of the West Coast Conference tournament on Tuesday. [ JOHN LOCHER | AP ]

Local tie: Utah athletic director Mark Harlan, who publicly blasted the officiating crew after his football team’s controversial loss to rival BYU late last fall, had the same gig at USF from 2013-2018. We don’t expect to see him courtside for his team’s first-round game vs. No. 9 Indiana.

Surreal stat: Where to begin with Horizon League champ Green Bay? The Phoenix (29-5) currently possess the second-longest win streak in the country (22 games) and have held every opponent under its respective scoring average during the entirety of that streak. Green Bay also led its league in attendance for the 25th season in a row.

Our pick for Tampa: South Carolina. Since their embarrassing 29-point home loss to UConn on Feb. 16, the reigning national champs (30-3) have won seven in a row, all by double digits. Moreover, they were denied the No. 1 overall seed, meaning Dawn Staley’s team likely will enter this tournament feeling a bit jilted. Yikes.

Birmingham Regional 3

TCU guard Madison Conner (10) is one of the nation's top 3-point shooters. [ CHARLIE RIEDEL | AP ]

Best opening-round matchup: No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 USF. The battle-tested Bulls (23-10), who purposely play a brutal non-conference slate just for games like this, will hardly be overwhelmed. Tennessee (22-9) employs a frenetic style of play (full-court pressure, lots of 3-point hoists) but has dropped three of its last four.

Upset alert: No. 14 Stephen F. Austin over No. 3 Notre Dame. The Irish (26-5), No. 1 in the nation as recently as mid-February, have dropped three of their last five and appeared lost at times during that baffling span. They also don’t possess a terribly deep bench. Stephen F. Austin (29-5), which hasn’t played nearly the schedule of Notre Dame’s, nonetheless hasn’t lost a game since mid-January.

Best story line: Texas coach Vic Schaefer’s breathtaking backstory — of family and faith, mishap and miracles — never gets old. In July 2010, while Schaefer was a Texas A&M assistant, his 14-year-old son, Logan, ruptured a blood vessel in his brain during a freak wakeboarding accident at a church camp. Though he emerged from a coma unable to walk, talk or exert any type of motor skill, he exited the hospital 39 days after his arrival “like nothing happened to him,” Schaefer said. Less than eight months later, Texas A&M won the national title.

The USF women's team reacts after being named a 12 seed during a Selection Sunday watch party at the Yuengling Center. [ LUIS SANTANA | Times ]

Local tie: What can be more local than USF? The Bulls (23-10), who had to win the American Athletic Conference tournament to make the 68-team field, trailed only once in three tourney games (when Tulane scored first in the quarterfinals) to earn the program’s 10th NCAA berth. They enter the tournament having won 12 of their last 14 contests.

Surreal stat: Though Big 12 regular-season and tournament champ TCU (31-3) entered the season on a 37-game losing streak to Baylor, it became the first team in 18 years to defeat the Bears three times in a season. What’s more, the Horned Frogs pulled off the trifecta in a six-week span, defeating Baylor on Jan. 26 (80-75), March 2 (51-48) and in the Big 12 tourney final March 9 (64-59).

Our pick for Tampa: Something tells us second-seeded TCU will make a magical run. The Horned Frogs' diverse offense includes 6-foot-7 force of nature Sedona Prince (17.5 points per game, 9.6 rebounds) and sharpshooter Madison Conner, whose 3-point percentage (45.2) is eighth best nationally. And in a tournament where ball security is paramount, the Horned Frogs rank fourth nationally in assist-turnover ratio.

Spokane Regional 4

From left, Connecticut's Sarah Strong, Caroline Ducharme, Aubrey Griffin, Paige Bueckers and Ice Brady celebrate after winning the Big East Tournament final against Creighton. [ JOE BUGLEWICZ | Getty Images North America ]

Best opening-round matchup: No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast vs. No. 3 Oklahoma. The Eagles (30-3), who have won 30 of their last 31 games, enter with a respectable NET ranking (59th). Oklahoma (25-7) had won nine in a row before losing to South Carolina in the SEC tournament.

Upset alert: No. 11 Murray State over No. 6 Iowa. The Missouri Valley Conference champs (25-7) have won 10 in a row and possess the best scoring offense in the country (87.9 points per game). If the Racers get hot, Iowa won’t have Caitlyn Clark to counter punch.

Best story line: Kentucky first-year coach Kenny Brooks inherited not only a 12-win team, but instant adversity upon his arrival in Lexington. Two significant players were lost for the season before it even began, yet Brooks has led the Wildcats (22-7) to an exceptional season and No. 4 seed. Behind a bevy of transfers, the Wildcats snapped a seven-game losing streak to rival Louisville in mid-November and embarrassed Tennessee, 82-58, on Feb. 27 for the program’s largest margin of victory against the Vols.

Local tie: Longtime Bucs fans will have reason for a rooting interest in USC if the top-seeded Trojans make it to Amalie Arena. Six-foot-1 freshman Laura Williams is the daughter of former Bucs quarterback Doug Williams and was born in Tampa. The bummer is she won’t suit up regardless of how far USC advances; Williams sustained a season-ending injury last fall.

USC's JuJu Watkins is favored to win the Naismith Trophy as the nation's top women's player. [ MICHAEL CONROY | AP ]

Surreal stat: USC sophomore sensation JuJu Watkins, a semifinalist for the Naismith Trophy as the country’s top player, has scored in double figures in all 31 games this season, and all except one in her career (nine vs. Stanford in last season’s Pac-12 tournament final). The nation’s No. 2 scorer (24.6 points per game), Watkins has scored at least 20 in 26 contests.

Our pick for Tampa: Connecticut. Some things in sports you simply don’t bet against — Michael Jordan in the clutch, snow at Lambeau Field in January, and a healthy Huskies team in March. The veteran foursome of Paige Bueckers, Caroline Ducharme, Azzi Fudd and Aubrey Griffin has missed a combined 302 games in the last four seasons. All enter this tournament ready to roll. UConn is 21-1 since Dec. 29.