Anthony Edwards' late-season focus has the Wolves looking sharp as the playoffs draw near.
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For the second straight season, the Los Angeles Lakers’ record is better than what it “should” be if we evaluated them based on point differential.
Through Sunday, the Lakers outscored their opponents by 1.4 points per game, a differential that ranks eighth in the West. But L.A. sits pretty comfortably in the top five in the standings.
The Minnesota Timberwolves, meanwhile, are one of three West teams that rank in the top 10 on both ends of the floor. But they’re in seventh place, four games in the loss column behind the Lakers, who don’t rank in the top 10 on either end of the floor.
The Lakers have been much better in close games than the Wolves: they are 20-13 (fifth best) in games that were within five points in the last five minutes, while Minnesota is 18-23 (seventh-worst). Point differential can be a better indicator than a team’s record of how good a team is, but late-game execution also matters a lot.
Here are the three teams with the biggest difference between their actual wins and their “expected” wins, based on point differential…
1. Washington: 15-51, with the point differential of a team that’s 10-56
2. Los Angeles Lakers: 41-25, with the differential of a team that’s 36-30
3. Portland: 29-39, with the differential of a team that’s 25-43
Here’s the other end of the spectrum …
1. Minnesota: 40-29, with the differential of a team that’s 45-24
2. Memphis: 43-25, with the differential of a team that’s 48-20
3. Boston: 49-19, with the differential of a team that’s 53-15
Plus-Minus Players of the Week
Teams of the Week
- Make It Last Forever: Minnesota (3-0) — The Wolves’ eight-game winning streak includes a fifth straight win over the Nuggets.
- Something Just Ain’t Right: Miami (0-4) — The Heat are testing the boundary of how far a former top-six team in the East can slide down the standings.
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East vs. West
- The West is 201-156 (.563) against the East in interconference games after going 12-11 last week.
Schedule strength through Week 21
- Toughest: 1. Toronto, 2. Washington, 3. New Orleans
- Easiest: 1. Cleveland, 2. Indiana, 3. New York
- Schedule strength is based on cumulative opponent record.
* * *
Movement in the Rankings
- High jump of the week: Chicago (+3)
- Free falls of the week: Indiana (-4)
* * *
Week 22 Team to Watch
- LA Clippers — Norman Powell is back and the Clippers’ offense has never been stronger. But they’ve reached the toughest part of their schedule with five games against the Cavs (x 2), Grizzlies, Thunder and Knicks over the next two weeks.
* * *
Previously…
OffRtg: Points scored per 100 possessions (League Rank)
DefRtg: Points allowed per 100 possessions (League Rank)
NetRtg: Point differential per 100 possessions (League Rank)
Pace: Possessions per 48 minutes (League Rank)
The league has averaged 113.5 points scored per 100 possessions and 99.7 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes this season.
NBA.com’s Power Rankings, released every Monday during the season, are just one man’s opinion. If you have an issue with the rankings, or have a question or comment for John Schuhmann, contact him via Bluesky.
Last Week:1Record: 56-11
OffRtg: 121.5 (1) DefRtg: 110.9 (7) NetRtg: +10.6 (2) Pace: 100.5 (9)
The Cavs’ 16-game winning streak ended with a five-point loss to the Magic on Sunday, Cleveland’s worst offensive game (103 points on 100 possessions) in more than two months.
Three takeaways
- The Cavs were a little better, statistically, over their 16-game winning streak (plus-13.0 points per 100 possessions) than they were over their 15-game streak to start the season (plus-11.5). The recent streak was also tougher (in regard to the opponents) and more road-heavy, with four road wins over teams — the Pistons, Celtics, Bucks and Grizzlies — with winning records. Their win in Memphis on Friday came without Donovan Mitchell.
- While the Cavs are 6-0 without Mitchell, they’re 5-3 without Evan Mobley, who missed the loss to Orlando with a foot contusion. Cleveland has now been 8.3 points per 100 possessions better with Mobley on the floor (plus-14.4) than they’ve been with him off the floor (plus-6.1), with the bigger difference coming on defense. They’ve allowed 118.9 points per 100 possessions in 192 minutes with Mitchell, Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen on the floor without the Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
- The four teams currently in the Eastern Conference portion of the SoFi Play-In Tournament seem likely to remain there, and one of them will be the Cavs’ opponent in the first round of the playoffs. Those four teams (all below .500) now account for four of the Cavs’ 11 losses, with the Bulls being the only one of the four that Cleveland hasn’t lost to. The one remaining game against the Play-In group is against Chicago in April.
There are still three opponents — the Clippers, Kings and Spurs — that the Cavs have yet to face, and they now play their next six (and nine of their next 11) games against the Western Conference. Their longest road trip this season (five games over eight days) begins in L.A. on Tuesday.
Week 22: @ LAC, @ SAC, @ PHX, @ UTA
Last Week:2Record: 56-12
OffRtg: 118.5 (4) DefRtg: 106.2 (1) NetRtg: +12.2 (1) Pace: 100.7 (7)
There are still four weeks left in the season, but the Thunder need just two more wins to clinch the best record in the Western Conference.
Three takeaways
- The Thunder’s loss to the Nuggets last Monday was their worst defensive game of the season (140 points allowed on 99 possessions) by a huge margin and, at that point, they ranked 17th defensively since the All-Star break. But they then held the Celtics, Pistons and Bucks to just 109.1 per 100 over a 3-0 trip, even though they lost Lu Dort to a hip injury in Detroit on Friday.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been powering the offense, averaging an amazing 35.1 points (no other player has averaged 30) since the break. But, even though Jalen Williams has missed the last 3 1/2 games, the Thunder have also been surviving when the Kia MVP candidate gets to rest. They’ve outscored their opponents by 11.0 points per 100 possessions in his 213 post-break minutes off the floor, up from plus-0.4 per 100 with him on the floor before the break.
The Thunder will have a chance to complete a regular-season sweep of a potential first-round opponent when they visit the eighth-place Clippers on Sunday. They’ve committed 33 fewer turnovers than the Clips (33-66) over their first three meetings.
Week 22: vs. PHI, vs. CHA, @ LAC
Last Week:3Record: 49-19
OffRtg: 119.2 (3) DefRtg: 110.4 (5) NetRtg: +8.7 (3) Pace: 97.2 (27)
On Wednesday, the Celtics surpassed their loss total from last season (64-18). Two nights later, they clinched no worse than sixth place in the East, extending their active playoff streak (longest in the league) to 11 years.
Three takeaways
- The Celtics went 2-2 in their four marquee matchups over their seven-game homestand, with the difference between the wins (107.4 points allowed per 100 possessions vs. the Nuggets and Lakers) and losses (126.2 per 100 allowed vs. Cleveland and Oklahoma City) being mostly about defense. It was noted in this space last week that Boston ranked second in opponent free throw rate, but the Thunder had 23 more attempts from the line than the Celtics (35-12) on Wednesday, with Jaylen Brown and Derrick White both fouling out.
- Kristaps Porzingis returned from an eight-game absence on Saturday, scoring a game-high 24 points (though he shot just 1-for-7 from 3-point range) in the Celtics’ win in Brooklyn. But Derrick White was out and Jaylen Brown left early with back spasms. The Celtics’ preferred starting lineup has still played together in just two of their last 17 games, and it’s still been outscored by 1.6 points per 100 possessions in its 307 minutes.
- The Celtics took 63 (67%) of their 93 shots from 3-point range in the loss to the Thunder, shooting just 2-for-11 from the corners. They eclipsed the 60% mark again two nights later in Miami and now account for 14 of the 18 instances where a team has taken more than 60% of its shots from beyond the arc this season. That’s a new record for games with a 3-point rate greater than 60%, topping the previous mark of 13, set by the 2018-19 Rockets.
After the Celtics host the Nets on Tuesday, they’ll begin their longest road trip of the season (six games over 11 days), which gets off to a slow start with games in Utah and Portland. With their win in Brooklyn over the weekend, they’re 25-3 against the bottom 11 teams in the league.
Week 22: vs. BKN, @ UTA, @ POR
Last Week:5↑Record: 39-28
OffRtg: 113.8 (15) DefRtg: 111.2 (8) NetRtg: +2.6 (10) Pace: 99.6 (16)
The Warriors have now won seven straight games overall and 12 straight with Jimmy Butler in uniform.
Three takeaways
- The bigger improvement since the Butler addition continues to be on offense, where the Warriors scored at least 130 points per 100 possessions for the sixth and seventh times in wins over the Blazers and Kings last week. They shot over 50% from 3-point range both nights, with six Warriors making at least five 3-pointers over the two games.
- Butler was not one of those six players and has an effective field goal percentage of just 46.1% with the Warriors, the 10th worst mark among 200 players with at least 100 field goal attempts since the trade deadline. But Stephen Curry and Butler are two of the seven players who’ve shot 88% or better on at least 100 free throw attempts over that stretch.
- The Warriors continue to be much better offensively with Curry on the floor, but since the Butler addition, they’ve still outscored their opponents by 9.9 points per 100 possessions in Curry’s 242 minutes on the bench. That includes a mark of plus-19.3 per 100 in 190 minutes with Butler on the floor without Curry.
The Warriors are still closer to falling back into the SoFi Play-In Tournament group in the West than they are to catching one of the four teams (second-fifth place) with 25 losses. But they have an easier remaining schedule than all four, as well as two games remaining against the third-place Nuggets. Both of those games are at home (the Warriors are the only team that hasn’t lost at home since Feb. 1) and the first is Monday.
Week 22: vs. DEN, vs. MIL, vs. TOR, @ ATL
Last Week:4↓Record: 41-25
OffRtg: 114.4 (11) DefRtg: 112.9 (13) NetRtg: +1.5 (13) Pace: 98.4 (23)
The Lakers lost the first three games of LeBron James’ absence, but put an end to their four-game losing streak with a comfortable win over the Suns on Sunday.
Three takeaways
- The four straight losses all came on the road, while the win on Sunday came at home. The Lakers now have the league’s biggest home-road differential regarding winning percentage (26-7 vs. 15-18) by a healthy margin. Statistically, the difference has been about even on both ends of the floor.
- Before last week, the Lakers led the league in free throw differential, having attempted 3.5 more per game than their opponents. Then, in the first three games of James’ absence, the free-throw-attempt totals were 101-53 in favor of the opponents. They got back on the positive side on Sunday when Luka Dončić was 13-for-14 from the line on his way to a game-high 33 points.
- The Lakers almost won in Denver without Dončić on Friday, when Bronny James got some real rotation minutes and Austin Reaves had 37 points, 13 assists and four steals. Reaves has been the key offensive cog in these four games without the elder James, with L.A. scoring an anemic 86 points per 100 possessions in his 42 minutes on the bench.
The win vs. the Suns was the start of a five-game homestand, but the Lakers are just halfway through their stretch of six games in eight days (three straight back-to-backs). They’ll have rest disadvantages against the Spurs on Monday and against the Bucks three nights later, currently 6-3 (3-0 at home) in the second games of back-to-backs.
Week 22: vs. SAS, vs. DEN, vs. MIL, vs. CHI
Last Week:8↑Record: 40-29
OffRtg: 114.7 (9) DefRtg: 110.6 (6) NetRtg: +4.2 (7) Pace: 98.1 (24)
The Wolves are a perfect 8-0 this month, keeping up with the Warriors, with whom they’re in a virtual tie for sixth place in the West.
Three takeaways
- It’s been a soft stretch of schedule, with seven of the Wolves’ eight March games coming against teams with losing records. Only two of the eight games have been within five points in the last five minutes, and two close wins is still a good thing for a team that was 16-23 in clutch games through February. The Wolves scored 10 points on six clutch possessions against the Magic’s top-five defense on Friday, with Anthony Edwards scoring the first five points on 9-0 run after the score was tied with less than four minutes left. He had missed 11 straight clutch shots prior to that.
- The Wolves have played one good team this month, and on Wednesday, they improved to 3-0 against the Nuggets, who they could certainly see in the playoffs again. They’ve held the league’s second-ranked offense to just 106.8 points per 100 possessions over the three games and have outscored Denver by 20.6 per 100 in Nikola Jokić’s 110 minutes on the floor, his worst on-court mark vs. any opponent.
- Donte DiVincenzo has been back for 10 games, but the Wolves have stuck with Mike Conley in the starting lineup (though DiVincenzo started with Conley out vs. Utah on Sunday). The arrangement seems to be working (again), with the two guards having combined to shoot 44-for-85 (52%) from 3-point range over the winning streak.
Indiana had the league’s second-ranked offense last season, but was held in check 110.6 points per 100 possessions as they lost both games to Minnesota’s top-ranked defense. The Wolves and Pacers are one of 12 pairs of teams (all East-West matchups) that have yet to face each other this season, with the first meeting set for Monday, when Indiana will have a rest advantage.
Week 22: vs. IND, vs. NOP, vs. NOP
Last Week:6↓Record: 43-25
OffRtg: 119.3 (2) DefRtg: 114.9 (22) NetRtg: +4.3 (6) Pace: 100.9 (5)
The Nuggets finished 2-2 against the Thunder … and 0-2 against the Wizards (who are 2-23 against other teams in the Western Conference).
Three takeaways
- Nikola Jokić totaled 96 points in the two games vs. Washington, but the Nuggets scored just 29 points on 39 offensive possessions (0.74 per) in his total 18 minutes on the bench against the league’s 28th-ranked defense. His overall on-off differential (19.1 points per 100 possessions) has been bigger in previous seasons, but the differential of 23.2 per 100 on offense is the highest of his career.
- Overall, the Nuggets’ have been worse on defense, where they’ve seen the league’s fourth-biggest jump in points allowed per 100 possessions from last season. A big part of that is allowing a lot of corner 3s, including at least four (more than the league average) in 16 straight games now. After regaining the lead in the final minute on Saturday, they allowed Kyshawn George to drain a wiiiiide-open look from the left corner with 10 seconds left.
- But the bigger difference between their wins and losses has been on the other end of the floor. Their win in Oklahoma City last Monday was the Thunder’s worst defensive game (statistically) by a wide margin. Two nights later, the Nuggets scored less than a point per possession in losing their fifth straight game to the Wolves.
The Nuggets have 14 games left, with half of them against other teams in the top seven of the Western Conference. They’re currently just 6-8 within the top seven and just 3 1/2 games ahead of the seventh-place Wolves, so they’ll continue to be under the spotlight for the next few weeks.
Week 22: @ GSW, @ LAL, @ POR, @ HOU
Last Week:7↓Record: 42-24
OffRtg: 117.7 (5) DefRtg: 113.6 (14) NetRtg: +4.2 (8) Pace: 98.0 (25)
The Knicks are 2-2 since losing Jalen Brunson to an ankle injury, remaining solidly in third place in the East.
Three takeaways
- Losses to the Clippers and Warriors without Brunson have been the second and third times that the Knicks have scored a point per possession or less. But they’ve scored more efficiently over these last four games (110.1 points per 100 possessions) than they did over their previous eight games since the All-Star break (107.4). They had a huge offensive night (133 on 100) in Sacramento last Monday and were already slumping offensively before losing their star.
- Their last two games were the Knicks’ first two clutch games without the guy who leads the league in clutch usage rate. Mikal Bridges led the team in clutch usage over the two games, draining the buzzer-beating, overtime game-winner in Portland on Wednesday. Karl-Anthony Towns, meanwhile, had more clutch 3-pointers in the two games (3-for-5) than he had previously (2-for-9). But the Knicks scored just five points on eight clutch possessions, with as many turnovers (two) as field goals, in their loss at Golden State over the weekend.
The Knicks are back home for just one game before heading back out for a back-to-back on the road. But their next five (and nine of their next 12) games are against teams currently below .500. They’ve won their last 10 games against that group, though the last nine have all been decided by single digits.
Week 22: vs. MIA, @ SAS, @ CHA, vs. WAS
Last Week:10↑Record: 43-25
OffRtg: 117.7 (6) DefRtg: 111.8 (10) NetRtg: +5.9 (4) Pace: 104.1 (1)
The Grizzlies couldn’t slow down the Cavs on Friday, but have won five of their last six games and are in a three-way tie with Houston and Denver for spots 2-4 in the West.
Three takeaways
- Playing without Jaren Jackson Jr. (who returned on Friday), the Grizzlies struggled to put away Phoenix and Utah last week. But they survived, with Ja Morant hitting big shots in the final minute of both games. They’ve won their last four games that were within five points in the last five minutes, allowing just 29 points on 36 clutch defensive possessions over that stretch. That has them ranking first in clutch defense and puts them above .500 (17-15) in clutch games for the season.
- There was no clutch time on Saturday when the Grizzlies beat the Heat by 34. It was their league-leading 11th victory in which they never trailed.
After playing nine of their last 11 games at home, the Grizzlies now embark on a five-game trip. They’re 0-2 against the Clippers, having scored just 105.7 points per 100 possessions (their third-worst mark against any opponent) over the two games. The third and final meeting is Friday in L.A.
Week 22: @ SAC, @ POR, @ LAC
Last Week:11↑Record: 43-25
OffRtg: 114.0 (14) DefRtg: 109.3 (2) NetRtg: +4.7 (5) Pace: 99.0 (19)
The Rockets have taken advantage of a soft stretch of schedule to win six straight games and climb back to second place in the West.
Three takeaways
- Fred VanVleet returned from a five-game absence last week, but the Rockets were without Amen Thompson (ankle sprain) for all four games. With Tari Eason also sitting out the second game of a back-to-back, their win against the Bulls on Saturday was the first time since Jan. 1 that they started a game with their original lineup (Jabari Smith at the four). They’re 21-10 when that lineup has played together and have outscored opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions in its 443 minutes. That mark ranks eighth among 21 lineups that have played at least 200 minutes.
- The Rockets continue to lead the league by a wide margin in offensive rebounding percentage (36.4%) and outscored the Mavs by 27 second-chance points (29-2) on Friday. The difference wasn’t so big the following night against the Bulls, but Jalen Green sealed the win with a tip-in that put them up four with 14 seconds left.
- The Rockets became the sixth team to surpass its win total from last season (41-41) on Friday. After taking the league average drop into account, they’re one of four teams — the Pistons, Thunder and Blazers are the others — that have seen season-to-season improvement of at least one point per possession on both ends of the floor.
This is the second time the Rockets are 18 games above .500. The last time that happened (32-14), they lost six straight. But they still have three games left on a stretch of nine straight against teams with losing records and they’ll close their six-game homestand with a visit from the Sixers on Monday.
Week 22: vs. PHI, @ ORL, @ MIA, vs. DEN
Last Week:13↑Record: 38-29
OffRtg: 114.0 (13) DefRtg: 112.1 (11) NetRtg: +2.0 (11) Pace: 100.5 (11)
The Bucks got a couple of important wins last week, but couldn’t compete with the Thunder over the weekend.
Three takeaways
- With their loss to the Thunder on Sunday, the Bucks are 0-11 against the top four teams in the league, with the last five losses all coming by double-digits. They’ve scored just 105.2 points per 100 possessions over the 11 games, with Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez and Gary Trent Jr. having combined for an effective field goal percentage of just 43.3% on 231 total shots.
- The Bucks earned the head-to-head tie-breaker with the fifth-place Pacers by splitting their two rest-advantage games last week. Home-court advantage should mean something if that’s the No. 4-5 matchup in the playoffs because both teams are in the top five in regard to home-road winning percentage differential. Three of the four meetings were within five points in the last five minutes.
- The strength of the Bucks’ and Pacers’ schedules going forward is about even, though Indiana’s is much more home-heavy. The Bucks will play nine of their final 15 games on the road, having been 8.4 points per 100 possessions better at Fiserv Forum (plus-5.8) than they’ve been in other teams’ arenas (minus-2.6). That’s the league’s third-biggest differential.
The Bucks are just 3-6 in Western Conference arenas, set to begin their longest road trip of the season (five games over nine days) in San Francisco on Tuesday. They’ll have rest advantages against the Warriors and again against the Lakers two nights later.
Week 22: @ GSW, @ LAL, @ SAC
Last Week:12Record: 38-30
OffRtg: 112.5 (18) DefRtg: 109.3 (3) NetRtg: +3.2 (9) Pace: 98.5 (21)
The Clippers have won six of their last seven games and remain in the mix for a guaranteed playoff spot in the West, trailing the sixth-place Warriors by just a game and a half.
Three takeaways
- Norman Powell was back in the lineup on Sunday, having played less than nine total minutes over the previous 13 games. The Clippers’ offense had already picked up without him and has now scored 119.2 points per 100 possessions (seventh in the league) over their last 11 games, up from 111.2 (21st) previously. They’ve scored at least 120 per 100 in each of their last four games and are now 19-3 when they’ve done so.
- Ivica Zubac has averaged 20.4 points on 66% shooting over this 11-game stretch and has now been assisted by James Harden 169 times. That’s 24 more assists than any other player has to a single teammate and comes at a rate of 3.4 per 36 minutes on the floor together, up from 2.7 per 36 last season. Zubac had eight assists in the Clippers’ win over Charlotte on Sunday.
- Bogdan Bogdanović has also seen dramatic improvement, registering an effective field goal percentage of 67.4% over the last eight games, up from 46.6% over his first eight games with the Clippers. He scored a season-high 30 points in their win in Miami on Wednesday.
The Clippers’ win Sunday over the Hornets started a four-game homestand that gets much tougher going forward. Five of their next six games are against teams — the Cavs (x 2), Grizzlies, Thunder and Knicks — in the top seven in the league. They’re 2-0 against Memphis, but 0-3 against Oklahoma City, having yet to face the best team in the West with Kawhi Leonard in uniform.
Week 22: vs. CLE, vs. MEM, vs. OKC
Last Week:9↓Record: 37-29
OffRtg: 115.1 (8) DefRtg: 114.3 (15) NetRtg: +0.8 (15) Pace: 100.6 (8)
Tyrese Haliburton’s return from a three-game absence got the Pacers back in the win column, though they lost the second of two rest-disadvantage games against the Bucks, losing the head-to-head tie-breaker and remaining in fifth place.
Three takeaways
- The Pacers’ loss in Chicago without Haliburton last Monday was just the fifth time they’ve scored less than a point per possession. They’re 0-4 without their point guard after going 7-6 without him last season, with T.J. McConnell’s minutes not nearly as productive offensively as they were in ’23-24.
- Overall, the Pacers have scored 5.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than they did last season, the league’s second-biggest drop. And it’s mostly been about their interior, with Indiana seeing the league’s fourth-biggest drop in offensive rebounding percentage and its fifth-biggest drop in the percentage of their shots that have come in the paint.
- Haliburton’s miracle four-point play beat the Bucks on Tuesday and he played even better (24 points, 15 assists, five steals and zero turnovers) in Milwaukee over the weekend. But the Pacers were outscored by 19 points (scoring just 14 on 21 offensive possessions) in his 11:26 on the bench. They’re now 8-8 in games played between the top six teams in the East, with their only two games remaining within the group (both against the Cavs) coming in the last four days of the season.
The Pacers’ weekend split in Philadelphia and Milwaukee was the start of their only stretch of five games in seven days, though they’ll begin their longest homestand of the season (five games over eight days) with a visit from the Mavs on Wednesday.
Week 22: @ MIN, vs. DAL, vs. BKN, vs. BKN
Last Week:14Record: 37-31
OffRtg: 113.6 (17) DefRtg: 111.8 (9) NetRtg: +1.8 (12) Pace: 100.5 (10)
The Pistons have lost four of their last six games, but aren’t in any danger of losing their spot in the top six in the East.
Three takeaways
- The Pistons have generally done a good job of taking care of business against bad teams and had won 10 straight games against those currently below .500 … until losing the second of two straight against the Wizards last week. They came back from 13 points down, but couldn’t get the stops they needed down the stretch, allowing Washington to score 17 points on 12 clutch possessions.
- Five of the Pistons’ last six games have been within five points in the last five minutes, and they’ve lost four of those five close ones, now 3-8 in clutch games (and ranking 28th in clutch defense) over the last two months.
- One of those close games was against the Thunder on Saturday (when Cade Cunningham was ejected late in the third quarter). Detroit had been outscored by 28 points in Cunningham’s 29 minutes, but Dennis Schröder had a terrific game (17 points, 11 assists, zero turnovers) off the bench. The Pistons have had the league’s third-ranked bench since the addition of Schröder, up from 16th before that.
The Pistons have six games remaining against teams that currently have losing records, and five of the six are in the next nine days. That includes their two meetings with the Pelicans, who they haven’t beaten in more than four years (seven straight losses).
Week 22: @ NOP, @ MIA, @ DAL, vs. NOP
Last Week:15Record: 33-33
OffRtg: 115.6 (7) DefRtg: 114.6 (19) NetRtg: +0.9 (14) Pace: 99.5 (17)
Domantas Sabonis returned from a six-game absence on Friday, but he wasn’t able to stop a four-game losing streak that has the Kings back at .500.
Three takeaways
- The first of these four straight losses was by one point in overtime. The last three have been by an average of 23.7, and it’s been the Kings’ worst three-game stretch of defense (132.3 points allowed per 100 possessions) this season. Each of the three opponents — the Knicks, Warriors and Suns — have shot better than 50% from 3-point range.
- The Kings haven’t shot nearly as well and continue to lead the league in the ratio of mid-range attempts to 3-point attempts (0.42). They’ve been outscored by 108 points from 3-point range over the last three games, taking their season-long 3-point discrepancy to 6.8 points per game. Only the Pelicans (minus-7.5) have been outscored by more points per game from beyond the arc.
- Big deficits often come with bad first quarters, and the Kings have been outscored by 41 points (scoring just 62 on 73 offensive possessions) in the opening period over these last three games. For the season, the Kings have outscored their opponents by 2.8 points per 100 possessions over quarters 2-4, but have been outscored by 4.8 per 100 in the first.
Having played 17 of their last 23 games on the road, the Kings will now begin their longest homestand of the season (seven games over 11 days), though their second (and final) stretch of five games in seven days begins with a visit from the Cavs on Wednesday.
Week 22: vs. MEM, vs. CLE, vs. CHI, vs. MIL
Last Week:16Record: 32-36
OffRtg: 112.1 (20) DefRtg: 114.5 (18) NetRtg: -2.4 (21) Pace: 103.8 (2)
The Hawks remain at the top of the SoFi Play-In Tournament group in the East, but are just a half-game ahead of the Magic, having blown a double-digit, second-half lead in Brooklyn on Sunday.
Three takeaways
- The Hawks have seen the league’s fifth-biggest jump in points scored per 100 possessions (+4.9) since the All-Star break. But the offense cooled off a bit over the weekend, with their loss to the Clippers on Friday being the ninth time the Hawks have scored less than a point per possession. That happened just seven times over the last two seasons combined.
- Zaccharie Risacher continues to show the benefits of a rookie hiatus. He’s averaged 13.9 points on an effective field goal percentage of 61.0% over 22 games since missing a stretch of six straight in January. He averaged just 10.5 on 46.2% over his 39 games before that.
- With Jalen Johnson out, Mouhamed Gueye has started 14 of the last 15 games. But the second-year big has averaged just 16.3 minutes over that stretch, with Georges Niang getting more (25.8) off the bench. It’s very much an offense-defense trade-off, with Atlanta having scored 9.9 more points per 100 possessions with Gueye off the floor (118.6) than it has with him on the floor (108.7) over these last 15 games.
The Hawks and Magic both have easy remaining schedules, with only four and five games, respectively, against teams currently over .500. The first of the Hawks’ four is Saturday against the Warriors and comes after a three-day break. It’ll be more than four months since their first meeting with Golden State, one of those other eight times that the Hawks have scored less than a point per possession.
Week 22: @ CHA, vs. GSW, vs. PHI
Last Week:19↑Record: 32-37
OffRtg: 107.8 (28) DefRtg: 109.3 (4) NetRtg: -1.5 (17) Pace: 96.7 (29)
The Magic went 3-2 on a pretty tough road trip that was bookended by impressive wins in Milwaukee and Cleveland, with the latter ending the Cavs’ 16-game winning streak.
Three takeaways
- The game in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon was a matchup of the league’s best and worst 3-point shooting teams. The Magic (13-for-31) won the battle beyond the arc, with the Cavs going 0-for-4 on 3-pointers to tie or take the lead in the final minute. The Magic have shot 36% or better from 3-point range in six of their last nine games, having done so in just 11 of their first 60.
- Five Magic players have shot better than 40% on at least 20 attempts from deep over these last nine games. They’re led by Paolo Banchero (24-for-59, 41%), who also had the go-ahead jumper from the free-throw line on Sunday. Banchero has averaged 29.1 points on an effective field goal percentage of 52.6% over the last 15 games, up from 19.7 on 43.6% over his first 15 games after returning from an extended absence.
- The Magic won on Sunday despite having nine fewer shooting opportunities than the Cavs. They still rank second in shooting-opportunity differential, having averaged 4.4 per game more than their opponents.
The Magic’s reward for their win in Cleveland is a week where they’re only playing twice. Their game against the Rockets (who lead the league in shooting opportunity differential) on Wednesday is a rematch of a 13-point Houston win from last week in which the teams combined to score just 98.4 points per 100 possessions.
Week 22: vs. HOU, @ WAS
Last Week:18Record: 31-37
OffRtg: 114.7 (10) DefRtg: 116.7 (27) NetRtg: -1.9 (19) Pace: 98.6 (20)
The door to the Western Conference Play-In Club remains wide open for the Suns, who aren’t quite sure that they want to pay the cover charge.
Three takeaways
- The Suns got a solid win over the Kings on Friday, shooting 24-for-43 (56%) from 3-point range. It was the 15th game in which they took more than half of their shots from 3-point range, something they did just four times last season. Overall, they’ve seen the league’s fourth biggest jump in 3-point rate (+6.0%), though that’s come more at the expense of shots in the paint (-3.6%) than from mid-range (-2.3%).
- The Bol Bol Experiment appears to be over. After starting eight straight games, Bol came off the bench in Houston on Wednesday, and then played 43 total seconds over the Suns’ two games over the weekend. Despite how big they are, the Suns have allowed 121.4 points per 100 possessions in 180 total minutes with Bol and Kevin Durant on the floor alongside Nick Richards or Mason Plumlee.
- Given their schedule, the Suns will probably need to beat better teams than the Kings to catch Dallas. But with their losses in Memphis, Houston and L.A. last week, they’re 1-10 since Feb. 1 against the 14 teams currently over .500, having allowed 123.5 per 100 over those 11 games.
To move up in the Western Conference, the Suns will also have to wins some games against the East. The second game of their Sunday-Monday back-to-back is the start of a five-game homestand in which all five games are against Eastern Conference opponents. It starts with a visit from the Raptors, to whom Suns lost by 18 points a few weeks ago.
Week 22: vs. TOR, vs. CHI, vs. CLE
Last Week:17↓Record: 29-39
OffRtg: 110.9 (23) DefRtg: 114.5 (16) NetRtg: -3.6 (23) Pace: 99.4 (18)
The Blazers’ quest to grab the West’s final SoFi Play-In Tournament spot took a hit with a five-game losing streak that culminated with a heartbreaking loss to the Knicks on Wednesday. But they ended their skid with a comeback win over Toronto on Sunday.
Two takeaways
- After missing the first 67 games, Matisse Thybulle debuted on Sunday. He played just six minutes, but the Blazers allowed just eight points on 15 defensive possessions in that time. Thybulle, who led the league with 5.3 deflections per 36 minutes last season, had two steals and then blocked Orlando Robinson’s 3-point attempt to tie the game in the final seconds.
- Over their last seven games, the Blazers have been 26.9 points per 100 possessions better in the second half (plus 10) than in the first half (minus 16.9). The much larger difference (19.1 per 100) has been on offense, where 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan has somehow shot just 6-for-24 in the first half over those seven games. Another Blazer with a big half-to-half shooting differential over that stretch is Scoot Henderson, who scored nine clutch points on Wednesday, having scored just two in 31 clutch minutes before that.
The Blazers have lost their two games against the Grizzlies by a total of 70 points, though both came before Thanksgiving. The third and final meeting is Wednesday, Game 4 of the seven-game homestand that will conclude with visits from the Nuggets, Celtics and Cavs.
Week 22: vs. WAS, vs. MEM, vs. DEN, vs. BOS
Last Week:23↑Record: 28-39
OffRtg: 112.1 (19) DefRtg: 115.7 (24) NetRtg: -3.5 (22) Pace: 103.4 (3)
The Bulls won four straight games (for the first time this season) before beginning a six-game trip with a loss in Houston.
Two takeaways
- With Nikola Vučević returning from a seven-game absence last week (but coming off the bench for one game) and Josh Giddey missing the last two, there’s been some mixing and matching with the starting lineup. Matas Buzelis has now started the last 16 games and Tre Jones has started the last six (in place of Lonzo Ball), with the Bulls being outscored by 13.4 points per 100 possessions (scoring just 104.3 per 100) in their 129 minutes together over that latter stretch.
- But bench minutes have generally been good, with the Bulls outscoring their opponents by 17.4 per 100 in Coby White’s minutes off the floor over the last five games. Julian Phillips scored a career-high 16 points against Brooklyn on Thursday, with half of those 16 coming in a 34-18 fourth quarter when the Bulls turned a 10-point deficit into a six-point victory. That was their league-leading 12th win in a game they traded after 36 minutes.
Their loss in Houston on Saturday was the start of the Bulls’ longest road trip of the season (six games over 10 days), as well as a stretch of nine straight games against the Western Conference. They’ve lost 10 straight games to the Suns, who they’ll visit on Wednesday.
Week 22: @ UTA, @ PHX, @ SAC, @ LAL
Last Week:20↓Record: 29-38
OffRtg: 111.1 (22) DefRtg: 112.6 (12) NetRtg: -1.5 (18) Pace: 97.0 (28)
The Heat have lost seven straight games and have surpassed last season’s loss total (46-36).
Three takeaways
- The Heat have scored just 104.6 (last in the league by a wide margin) over the losing streak, down from 116.3 per 100 over their first seven games after the All-Star break. The shooting hasn’t been terrible, but it hasn’t been good, and they’ve also seen drops in free throw rate and offensive rebounding percentage. Tyler Herro’s season-long free throw rate (22.9 attempts per 100 shots from the field) would be the highest of his career, but he has just 14 free throw attempts with his 107 shots from the field over the losing streak.
- The Heat made changes to their starting lineup during the streak, tweaking things around their core of Herro, Andrew Wiggins and Bam Adebayo. They haven’t found the right mix and have lost the last three first quarters by a total score of 98-70. Miami has also been outscored by 13 points per 100 possessions in 224 total minutes with Herro, Wiggins and Adebayo on the floor together.
- At 28-38 (.433), this would be the Heat’s worst season in the last 17 years. Though they have a bottom-10 offense, the bigger drop-off from last season (when you take the league average into account) has been on the other end of the floor.
The Heat are just a game ahead of the 10th-place Bulls, having already lost the head-to-head tie-breaker. Miami has more games remaining against teams currently over .500 (seven) than Chicago (five), with three of those seven in the next five days.
Week 22: @ NYK, vs. DET, vs. HOU, vs. CHA
Last Week:24↑Record: 24-44
OffRtg: 110.1 (26) DefRtg: 114.5 (17) NetRtg: -4.5 (24) Pace: 100.1 (12)
The Raptors’ soft March schedule has them 6-2 this month, though they blew a 15-point, second-half lead in Portland on Sunday.
Two takeaways
- The Blazers grabbed a couple of key offensive rebounds down the stretch on Sunday, and the loss ended a streak of nine straight games in which the Raptors outscored their opponents on second chances. They rank second in offensive rebounding percentage since the All-Star break, up from 10th before the break and 18th last season. Colin Castleton (11.3%), Orlando Robinson (10.8%) and Jakob Poeltl (9.9%) rank 10th, 13th and 17th, respectively, among 228 individuals who’ve averaged at least 20 minutes in five post-break games or more.
- Overall though, the schedule has been more helpful on the other end of the floor, where the Raptors have allowed just 109.3 points per 100 possessions (third best) since the All-Star break, down from 115.8 (26th) before the break. That’s the league’s biggest improvement, with league-average efficiency rising since the break.
The Raptors have just two games remaining against teams with winning records, and the first is at Golden State on Thursday, the end of their four-game trip. They’re just 6-30 (with seven straight losses) against the 14 teams currently over .500, though one of those six wins came against the (pre-Butler) Warriors in January.
Week 22: @ PHX, @ GSW, vs. SAS
Last Week:21↓Record: 28-38
OffRtg: 113.7 (16) DefRtg: 116.1 (25) NetRtg: -2.4 (20) Pace: 100.1 (13)
With a chance to make things interesting regarding the last SoFi Play-In Tournament spot in the West, the Spurs split two games with the 10th-place Mavs last week. Then they shut down De’Aaron Fox for the season.
Two takeaways
- The Spurs now rank last defensively since the All-Star break (when Victor Wembanyama was shut down). The super-shorthanded Mavs had their second most-efficient offensive game of the season (133 points on 98 possessions) last Monday, and four nights later, the Hornets (who rank 29th offensively) had the third-most-efficient game for any team this season (145 on 99). The Spurs have allowed more than 130 per 100 in five of their nine March games, having done so four times prior.
- The Spurs were 2-3 with both Fox and Wembanyama in the lineup and were just 4-8 with Fox otherwise. Over the five weeks that he was available, they were 12.6 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor (plus-5.3) than they were with him on the floor (minus-7.3).
The Spurs have a one-game trip to make up a game against the Lakers on Monday. They’ll then play six straight games against the Eastern Conference.
Week 22: @ LAL, vs. NYK, vs. PHI, @ TOR
Last Week:22↓Record: 33-36
OffRtg: 114.2 (12) DefRtg: 114.8 (21) NetRtg: -0.6 (16) Pace: 100.1 (14)
The Mavs are still hanging on to the last SoFi Play-In Tournament spot in the West, but they’re 1-8 this month. The nadir seemingly came on Sunday afternoon, when they lost at home to the similarly depleted Sixers.
Two takeaways
- Things somehow got worse for the Mavs last week, with Danté Exum breaking his hand in their 37-point loss in Houston on Friday. They did get P.J. Washington back from a seven-game absence on Sunday but still had just the minimum eight available players against Philly. They can’t sign anybody (because of CBA rules) until the last week of the season and starting center Kessler Edwards is only eligible for two more games (because he’s on a two-way contract and has been active for 48 of a maximum 50). The good news is that the Mavs have only two games this week, but they’ll need one of their injured guys to get back by next Monday.
- The Mavs did get a win last week, scoring 133 points on 98 possessions (their second-most-efficient performance of the season) in the first of two games in San Antonio. They had a relatively low assist rate, but four of their eight available guys scored 22 points or more. Their defense has been worse than their offense (which ranks first in turnover rate) over the seven games since Kyrie Irving was lost for the season.
Dallas still leads 11th-place Phoenix (who holds the tie-breaker) by a game and a half, and the Mavs have the easier schedule down the stretch. Their loss to the Sixers on Sunday began a stretch of nine straight games against the Eastern Conference, with five of the remaining eight on the road.
Week 22: @ IND, vs. DET
Last Week:26↑Record: 23-45
OffRtg: 109.3 (27) DefRtg: 115.5 (23) NetRtg: -6.2 (26) Pace: 96.2 (30)
The Nets went 2-3 on their stretch of five games in seven days last week, playing spoiler against the Lakers and Hawks, while also hanging with both the Cavs and Celtics until the final seconds.
Two takeaways
- Cam Thomas is done for the season, having played in just 25 games and having suffered a hamstring strain (after dishing out a career-high 10 assists) on Thursday. He’ll be one of the more interesting (restricted) free agents in the league this summer, even just to see how eager the Nets are to bring him back. Thomas gives the Nets some offensive firepower, but this is the second straight season where they’ve been at their worst defensively (120.6 points allowed per 100 possessions) with him on the floor.
- The Nets’ most capable scorer remaining is Cam Johnson, who, unsurprisingly, has a career-high usage rate of 22.3% this season. Johnson has done well with the jump in usage, registering a career-best true shooting percentage of 63.6%. Johnson has also been flashing his passing skills, averaging career highs in both assists per game (3.2) and per 36 minutes (3.6). He had 13 total in the Nets’ weekend back-to-back.
The Nets have now lost 17 of their last 18 games against the Celtics, who they’ll face again on Tuesday. Their final rest-advantage game of the season will be two nights later when they begin a two-game series in Indiana.
Week 22: @ BOS, @ IND, @ IND
Last Week:25↓Record: 18-50
OffRtg: 110.5 (25) DefRtg: 118.6 (30) NetRtg: -8.1 (29) Pace: 99.8 (15)
The Pelicans were the second team to be eliminated from playoff contention when they got clobbered by the Magic on Thursday.
Two takeaways
- After a 5-1 stretch that extended into March, the Pelicans have lost six of their last seven games. But they played spoiler against the Clippers on Tuesday, with Zion Williamson recording his second career triple-double. Both have come in the last three weeks and they’ve come in the Pelicans’ two best wins since the All-Star break. Williamson has a lower usage rate and a much higher assist ratio in the nine wins he’s played in than he has in 19 losses.
- An ankle injury for Yves Missi has had fellow rookie Karlo Matković in the starting lineup for the last two games. Matković has averaged 11.8 points and 7.8 rebounds over the last five, shooting 22-for-30 (73%) in the paint. The Pels rank fifth in the percentage of their minutes (16%) that have come from rookies, with Missi ranking third among first-year players in total minutes played.
Eight of New Orleans’ final 14 games are against the Eastern Conference, with four of those eight coming against the Pistons and Bucks. The Pelicans have won their last seven meetings with Detroit.
Week 22: vs. DET, @ MIN, @ MIN, @ DET
Last Week:27Record: 23-44
OffRtg: 111.3 (21) DefRtg: 116.4 (26) NetRtg: -5.1 (25) Pace: 97.8 (26)
The Sixers are playing a bunch of other bad teams over these last several weeks of the season, so they’re going to pick up some wins here and there, no matter who’s in the lineup. One of those came in Dallas on Sunday afternoon.
Two takeaways
- The Sixers have now been without all three of their stars for the last six games. They have been better offensively (113.7 points scored per 100 possessions, 18th) than defensively (120.8 allowed per 100, 25th) over that stretch. Nine Sixers have averaged double-figures (in 2-6 games) since Paul George last played.
- Before March 1, Quentin Grimes had recorded a usage rate of 30% or higher in just two of his 232 career games. He’s now done so four times in eight games this month, and he’s averaged 29.3 points on an effective field goal percentage of 59.3% over his last four games. He’s no longer just an off-ball shooter and for the season, he’s registering career-high marks for both free throw rate (23 attempts per 100 shots from the field) and the percentage of his shots that have come in the paint (37%).
Their win in Dallas on Sunday was the start of the Sixers’ second six-game road trip, and they’ll be at a rest disadvantage in Houston on Monday.
Week 22: @ HOU, @ OKC, @ SAS, @ ATL
Last Week:28Record: 15-51
OffRtg: 106.2 (30) DefRtg: 117.6 (28) NetRtg: -11.4 (30) Pace: 102.3 (4)
Prior to the All-Star break, the Wizards never had more than three wins in any 10-game stretch. But they’ve now won six of their last 10, with the highlight being Jordan Poole’s game-winning 35-footer in Denver on Saturday.
Two takeaways
- Improvement has started on defense, where the Wizards rank 14th since the All-Star break, having seen the league’s second-biggest drop in points allowed per 100 possessions (-5.9). They’ve held their opponents to just 53.2% shooting in the paint (fourth best) since the break, down from 58.6% (seventh-worst) prior. They’ve also seen a big jump in opponent turnover rate, with Khris Middleton (4.2) and Marcus Smart (4.0) leading the team in post-break deflections per 36 minutes.
- With the win over the Nuggets (in which they came back from 16 points down) on Saturday, the Wizards completed a season sweep of one of the best teams in the league and also matched their win total from last season (15-67). Statistically, they’re still 2.7 points per 100 possessions worse than they were in ’23-24, but they’re now 10-14 in clutch games, an improvement from 9-28.
The Wizards remain the only team that hasn’t held an opponent under a point per possession, but 11 of their final 16 games will come against teams that currently rank in the bottom 12 offensively. That includes their second meeting with the Jazz (Wednesday in Utah), who they tied in the win column on Saturday.
Week 22: @ POR, @ UTA, vs. ORL, @ NYK
Last Week:29Record: 17-50
OffRtg: 107.1 (29) DefRtg: 114.6 (20) NetRtg: -7.6 (28) Pace: 98.4 (22)
The Hornets have picked up three wins in the last nine days, though they got clobbered at the Intuit Dome on Sunday.
Two takeaways
- Charlotte’s 145 points on 99 possessions in San Antonio on Friday was the third most efficient performance for any team this season, and it came with a franchise-record 26 3-pointers on 46 attempts. The Hornets came out firing from deep this season, ranking second in 3-point rate (49.1%) through Nov. 30. They’ve toned it down (41.3%, 17th) since then, but have now won the last four games in which they’ve taken more than half of their shots from beyond the arc (having gone 1-7 in those games through November).
- The Hornets still rank last offensively (by a healthy margin) since the All-Star break, having scored just 101.3 per 100 over their other 14 post-break games. Over the last five weeks, they account for nine of the 40 instances where a team has scored less than a point per possession, more than double the total of any other team. The latest was in L.A. on Sunday, when the Hornets shot 6-for-33 (18%) from 3-point range and had just nine free throw attempts.
The Southeast Division is the worst in the league by a huge margin, with the 32-36 Hawks in first place. But the Hornets are just 1-12 in divisional games, set to play their last three in the next nine days. Their one win within the Southeast was in Miami a week ago, and they’ll be back at the Kaseya Center on Sunday.
Week 22: vs. ATL, vs. NYK, @ OKC, @ MIA
Last Week:30Record: 15-53
OffRtg: 110.8 (24) DefRtg: 118.2 (29) NetRtg: -7.4 (27) Pace: 100.9 (6)
The Jazz have played some close games against good teams, but they’ve extended their losing streak to a season-long nine games and now have the worst record in the league.
Two takeaways
- The Jazz were fined $100,000 on Wednesday for not playing Lauri Markkanen, so the seven-footer returned from a nine-game absence that night in Memphis. But he sat the entire second half two nights later when Walker Kessler was a healthy scratch. Of course, if the Jazz want to ensure that they’re getting a top-five pick in this Draft (by finishing with the league’s worst record), they don’t need to put Markkanen in hiding. They have a worse record in games he’s played (9-37, .196) than in games he’s missed (6-16, .273).
- We don’t necessarily think of the Jazz as being much worse than they were last season, but they surpassed their loss total from 2023-24 (31-51) last week. They’ve seen the league’s third-biggest drop in winning percentage, though only its 10th-biggest drop in point differential per 100 possessions (-2.3). They’re now 7-23 in clutch games (including 3-15 when Markkanen has played clutch time), down from 16-17 last season.
The Jazz will begin a six-game homestand on Monday, with the worst record in the league likely on the line when they host the Wizards two nights later. Markkanen, Kessler, John Collins and Jordan Clarkson didn’t play when the Wizards won the first meeting (12 days ago in Washington) by three points.
Week 22: vs. CHI, vs. WAS, vs. BOS, vs. CLE