Syria's dictator gone — but his drug dealers are still busy

Last week, Iraqi authorities intercepted one of the largest shipments of the illegal drug, Captagon, they had ever stopped. Just over a ton of the pills — an amphetamine-like drug that's highly addictive and popular with users in wealthy Gulf states — were found hidden in a truck heading over the Iraqi border from Turkey. It had apparently come from Syria.

Observers immediately asked: Why were such large shipments of Captagon still being discovered, several months after Syria's authoritarian Assad regime was ousted?

In Syria, during years of civil war, the Captagon trade became one of the authoritarian Assad government's biggest earners. Under sanctions for war crimes, it was one of the regime's only ways to make money. Experts say Captagon was bringing in billions annually, adding up to sums much larger than Syria's regular government budget.

In early December last year, the Assad regime was ousted by a coalition of opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS. The latter has since formed an interim government and pledged to crack down on Captagon producers and dealers.

HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, now head of the current caretaker government, said in a speech that Syria would be "purified" of the drug trade.

In January, Syria signed an agreement with Jordan pledging to put an end to the Captagon trade.

So why hasn't this happened?

Partially because of the general, ongoing security issues in Syria. The interim government doesn't have the funding, staff, time or surveillance equipment to stamp out Captagon production and smuggling altogether.

But there are other factors too.

The Washington-based Newlines Institute has been tracking Captagon smuggling reports since 2016 in a dedicated database and in 2024, they noticed the Assad regime putting more pressure on Captagon smuggling networks.

This was most likely due to the pressure the regime was under from other Arab countries. Saudi Arabia and Jordan, for example, see Captagon as a serious problem for their own people, as well as a security issue, and have both been trying to get Syria to reduce the drug dealing in return for better regional relations.

As a result of the Assad regime crackdown, "we have seen over the last year, Captagon trafficking overspill beyond Syria, into Iraq, into Turkey, Germany, the Netherlands, Egypt and interestingly, even Kuwait," Caroline Rose, director of the crime-conflict nexus portfolio at the Newlines Institute, explained last week during a virtual panel hosted by the Carnegie Middle East Center. "The regime didn't know it at the time … [but] they were unknowingly setting up this illicit trade to thrive after the regime had fallen."

International drug trade

Smuggler networks and laboratories evolved to become smaller, more mobile and flexible even before last December, Rose noted. All of which "is very conducive to Captagon becoming a more transregional, nimble and very difficult trade to counter," she said.

Outside of Syria, groups that supported the Assad regime, which were previously suspected of involvement in the Captagon trade — including Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran-affiliated militias in Iraq — are likely still involved in the drug trade.

Low levels of Captagon are being produced in Lebanon's southern Bekaa Valley, an historic Hezbollah stronghold, researchers say.

In Iraq, raw materials for Captagon come from Iran and are sent to labs there or further afield for manufacturing, Iraqi anti-drugs campaigner, Mohammed al-Yasiri, told Arabic-language media outlet Al Hurra last week. Iraq's pro-Iranian militias provide all the logistical support for that, he claims.  

Drugs still inside Syria

Some of the recent hauls are stockpiles left over from the Assad regime but Captagon is also still being produced inside Syria, Carnegie Middle East Center deputy director Mohanad Hage Ali, pointed out in a report published earlier this month.

"In northern Syria, the Captagon smuggling route to Turkey entailed collaboration between the Syrian regime and militant groups that are part of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army [SNA]," Hage Ali wrote. So despite 2024's setbacks, "[Captagon] production continues in opposition-held areas of Syria, including northern parts of the country controlled by the SNA."

In the south of Syria, Captagon production is also still happening, for example, in the Sweida region, where prominent members of the local community are involved in the business, the researcher added.

"The ability to produce Captagon has been decentralized," Hage Ali explained during the online panel last week. "Some groups affiliated with the [Syrian] opposition were actively producing Captagon. That's something the Jordanians have highlighted: Some of these factories haven't been shut down in the Sweida region or the Daraa region."

As other analysts noted, right now Syria's interim President al-Sharaa may not be able to do much about that. He can't afford to antagonize community leaders who may also be involved in the Captagon trade because he also has to stabilize the country after over a decade of civil war and communal division.

"Tha'ts why we haven't seen a series of Captagon lab seizures [in those areas] like we have seen elsewhere," Rose adds. "The interim government knows the capacity of these clans and these different networks — they have clout, respect and credibility. And that capacity is on full display right now as we see [border] clashes between Hezbollah and the Lebanese army, and the Syrian army."

Why does it matter?

Rose doesn't think Syria will go back to being the "narco-state" that it was under the Assad family. But, she told DW, "it is possible that smuggling syndicates embedded in Syria's borderlands could challenge the interim government's control over border checkpoints and local governance." 

Drug kingpins already play a role in the turbulent politics of Lebanon and Syria, Hage Ali said last week, and at the moment both countries are going through a difficult transitional phase with their respective new governments. Stabilizing economic improvements are desperately needed, he argued, so that security can be better funded and maintained and so that locals are not driven to the drug trade by financial desperation.

For instance, Hage Ali noted in his report, Lebanese soldiers have seen their wages shrink hugely in real terms because of their country's economic crisis. This makes it easier to coopt them into the illicit drug trade.

"If these transitions fail, then I think it would be difficult to tackle this [Captagon] business," Hage Ali concluded. "If there's not a commitment to making these transitions successful then this [current shortage] will only be a glitch in the history of Captagon. It will recover later and have critical implications in the longer term."

Edited by: Jess Smee