Daily Briefing: A barrel of trouble

On that note, let’s get to today’s edition.

Big Story

US President Donald Trump has ignited fresh concerns with his erratic tariff threats—this time over India’s oil imports. He has threatened secondary tariffs (25-50 per cent) on all oil coming out of Russia. What’s more? He hinted at sanctions against buyers. “If you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States,” he asserted.

Why? The threats were likely triggered by the lack of movement on a ceasefire in the Ukraine war that began in 2022. The US has taken a lead in brokering peace between the duelling nations. While Kyiv has been playing ball, Moscow has so far only agreed to let up attacks on energy infrastructure and in the Black Sea.

So what? If Trump carries out the threat, it may spell trouble for India, which became the biggest buyer of seaborne Russian crude amid the war. In 2024, Russian oil made up 35 per cent of India’s total crude imports. Delhi, however, has been clear that it won’t buy oil under sanctions. With Russian oil out of the markets, India will lose access to discounted crude oil and face higher global oil prices as it turns to alternative sources.

Also… India will likely miss out on any concessions on the reciprocal tariffs front before tomorrow’s announcement. However, the US has expressed willingness to work out a trade deal.

Only in Express

Tamil Nadu playbook: With a BJP-AIADMK reunion on the horizon, the young firebrand K Annamalai may be caught in the crosshairs. Insiders told The Indian Express that he may step down as the BJP Tamil Nadu president to see through the alliance. In 2023, Annamalai was considered one of the main reasons behind the fallout between the parties. However, sources in the BJP say caste equations may be at play this time. For his part, Annamalai has submitted himself to the party’s strategy ahead of the upcoming 2026 Tamil Nadu polls.

From the Front Page

Out of tune: The latest storm brewing in Haryana politics is a crackdown on singers. The government has banned several songs “promoting gun culture and violence”. However, the move has not gone down well among artists and the Opposition.

Leverage: In his pitch to China, Bangladesh interim government chief advisor Muhammad Yunus touched a nerve in India. Emphasising the “landlocked” nature of India’s northeastern states, Yunus leveraged Bangladesh’s access to the ocean as a gateway for Chinese goods.

Must Read

History lessons: The recent hullaballoo around Aurangzeb has many debating the legacy left behind by the Indian subcontinent’s Mughal rulers. In his Opinion column, actor and author Naseeruddin Shah reminds us of the fallacies of generalisations.

Per law: American Presidents can only hold office for two terms. However, Trump insists he is “not joking” about serving a third term. Can he circumvent the US Constitution? It’s unlikely.

Nari shakti: Women have emerged as a crucial electoral constituency, with all political parties vying for their votes. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), too, has taken note. In the last few years, the organisation has turned its focus to women rulers of medieval India who ‘defeated invaders’, ‘protected Hinduism’.

And Finally…

The Indian government has become the single-largest shareholder in the telecom firm Vodafone Idea (Vi). This is the second lifeline the Centre has extended to the telco, struggling from massive debts and intense competition. Will it help the company? Read.

Before you go, tune in to the latest episode of the ‘3 Things’ podcast. Today’s lineup: The arrest of a journalist in Assam, 99% of pollution funds remain unused, and an initiative helping the disabled in Rajasthan.

That’s all for today, folks! Until tomorrow,
Sonal Gupta

Business As Usual by EP Unny