The political handshake between the BJP and the AIADMK has set the tone for what could be a closely contested Assembly election in Tamil Nadu in 2026. Home Minister Amit Shah’s press conference in Chennai, with AIADMK general secretary and former Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami by his side last week, effectively sounded the poll bugle, as the BJP attempts to conquer one of its last remaining bastions.
The BJP high command has conceded almost all the demands of the AIADMK. The NDA alliance would be led by the AIADMK in the state, Shah announced. The elections would be fought under the leadership of Palaniswami (EPS), making him effectively the CM candidate of the alliance. Importantly, the AIADMK’s decisions on the leaders it had ousted—TTV Dhinakaran, former CM O Panneerselvam, and Sasikala—were to be treated as internal party matters. Also, the BJP state president, K Annamalai, was to be replaced.
But even with Annamalai gone, the two parties still have to contend with a history of mistrust and competing ambitions.
Also Read: As Amit Shah confirms tie-up for 2026, a look at AIADMK & BJP’s hot-and-cold equation over the years
The Annamalai problem
Replacing Annamalai became inevitable after he consistently voiced opposition to an alliance with the AIADMK and belittled some of its tallest icons, including former party chief and CM J Jayalalithaa. In fact, the AIADMK had made it clear that there would be no patch-up with the BJP as long as Annamalai was in the chair.
However, Annamalai did expand the BJP’s base in the state. With his very visible profile and penchant for media headlines, he created a larger-than-life image not just for himself but also for the party in Tamil Nadu.
With the AIADMK busy in its intra-party disputes, Annamalai managed to project the BJP as a major opposition force. But his vocal opposition to an alliance with the AIADMK eventually came to be seen as a stumbling block by a party high command keen to expand its presence in Tamil Nadu.
The BJP still seems to view the AIADMK as a potential Shiv Sena in the making—a party it could at some stage fracture and then acquire a large part of its vote base. But for now, it seems to have decided that the time for that would come later, perhaps after the 2026 Assembly election.
Also, there is a realisation that the two parties need each other to take on the DMK alliance. Despite being routed in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, as they fought separately, the combined vote of the AIADMK and the BJP alliance was more than that of the DMK alliance in over 80 Assembly segments out of 234—only 37 short of a majority. The difference in vote share between the two was only a little over 5 per cent.
Nainar Nagendran’s appointment as Annamalai’s successor is, in many ways, a pragmatic decision. A former AIADMK veteran and a minister who served in the Jayalalithaa government, he ticks most of the boxes. Hailing from southern Tamil Nadu, where the AIADMK and BJP had taken a hit in the 2021 Assembly elections, he belongs to the Mukkulathor community, once a backbone of the AIADMK in that part of the state. With the exit of TTV Dhinakaran, Sasikala and O. Panneerselvam (all from the Mukkulathor community), the caste seemed to have drifted away from the AIADMK. Nainar’s appointment, together with the expected inclusion/continuation of TTV Dhinakaran’s AMMK in the NDA alliance, are both moves aimed at wooing the community back.
Nagendran is also a more mature leader than Annamalai, who was prone to making intemperate statements that often antagonised friends and allies more than foes. He is also likely to be more accommodative to his party seniors in the state unit than Annamalai, who reportedly had his own faction in the party and occasionally rode roughshod over the party veterans. Many leaders in the state unit of the BJP were hardly on talking terms with Annamalai, and some were even openly sniping at him.
Also Read: Who is Nainar Nagendran & why he fits the bill as Tamil Nadu BJP chief ahead of 2026 polls
Do or die
The challenges before the alliance are enormous. The BJP is still seen as a bit of a liability in Tamil Nadu, thanks to its hardline stance on the three-language formula, its focus on Hindi, and the perceived stepmotherly treatment of the state by the Centre. The DMK will no doubt rake up issues of state autonomy and play on them in the run-up to the elections.
The alliance also needs to rope in other potential allies like the PMK (there is still a lack of clarity on whether they are still in the NDA), the DMDK, and others. There is also talk of trying to rope in the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), a Tamil nationalist party led by firebrand Seeman, which polled 8 per cent of the vote in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
The AIADMK, despite having agreed to the alliance, is still wary of the BJP. There’s a perception that the Centre has been soft on the DMK government, and that various cases against DMK leaders, including the 2G case appeal, have hardly moved. Central agencies, too, have been much quieter in Tamil Nadu than in other Opposition-ruled states. There is a sense of an informal understanding between the BJP high command and the DMK’s first family, and the AIADMK will want to see if that equation changes on the ground.
Seat-sharing could also prove contentious if more parties join the alliance. The AIADMK would want to contest at least 160 of the 234 seats.
But for now, there is bonhomie and a sense of relief among both parties that the suspense over the alliance has ended. There is a long road ahead but both the AIADMK and the BJP know that if they don’t hang together now, they will hang separately in 2026.
The author is a political analyst, doctor, and healthcare IT professional. Views are personal.
(Edited by Asavari Singh)