Trump Jr Sails To Eastern Europe to Woo American Deals over Chinese Influence

What is the ‘Trump Business Vision 2025’ tour in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)?

As Donald Trump Jr. tours Central and Eastern Europe, his mission is twofold: woo businesses to choose American deals over Chinese investments and bolster political allies, especially before Romania’s pivotal presidential election. Coinciding with the Three Seas Initiative’s 10th anniversary in Warsaw, his trip underscores Washington’s push to curb Beijing’s influence in the region. Trump Jr. is not taking part in the summit.

Trump Jr. travels around 3Seas during 10th anniversary; EC to unveil strategy to eliminate Russian energy imports on 6 May

GLOBAL/REGIONAL

• Donald Trump Jr has embarked on a trip around CEE, looking to boost political allies and encourage businesses to deal with the US over China. 
• During a business forum in Budapest last week, Trump Jr. told attendees that Hungary should pick the US as the more reliable, long-term economic partner.
• This week, Trump’s eldest son is set to travel to Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Czechia and Slovakia, heading a roadshow titled ‘Trump Business Vision 2025’.
• Trump Jr. is expected to exert political influence in Romania, ahead of an election that the Trump administration has shown major interest in (see also the Bulgaria section). Interestingly, he is not scheduled to visit Warsaw, despite its elections.
• In contrast, Chinese President Xi Jinping is preparing to lift sanctions on a handful of EU lawmakers – a goodwill gesture that could be a prelude to reviving trade talks and improving relations.

• Trump Jr‘s tour coincides with the 10th anniversary of the Three Seas Initiative (read more about 3Seas), which is a US-driven project that counters the Chinese 17+1 initiative. 
• The anniversary will be held in Warsaw today and tomorrow, with high-level delegations from over 20 countries to attend, including the presidents of 12 countries.
• Previously, President Andrzej Duda had invited US President Donald Trump to the summit, but the US will instead be represented by US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright. Last night, Duda met with Wright in Warsaw and discussed cooperation prospects, including in the field of nuclear energy.
• It is expected that on Tuesday, with the participation of Polish PM Donald Tusk, an agreement will be signed between the state company Polish Nuclear Power Plants and the Westinghouse-Bechtel consortium to build a nuclear power plant in Poland.
• Nobumitsu Hayashi, Governor of Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC), is also expected to attend the anniversary and speak on clean energy. On 30 January, JBIC signed an additional commitment to invest in startups in the region.

• Last week, Duda criticised Polish FM Radosław Sikorski for not mentioning Polish participation in the 3Seas during his speech on Poland’s foreign policy.
• In turn, Sikorski pointed out that the organiser of the summit is the office of the President – and that the successes of the 3Seas over the 10 years of its existence have been rather modest.

• The annual meeting of finance chiefs and central bankers in Washington saw the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgrade its economic forecast due to the Trump tariff war – cutting its overall prediction for global growth to 2.8%.
• The Eurozone GDP will drop by 0.2%. In comparison, the IMF cut its forecast for the US economy by nearly a full 1% to 1.8%, from 2.7 % in January.

• Despite Donald Trump‘s promise that Washington would ‘100 percent‘ strike a trade deal with the EU – a verbal win for Meloni – it‘s hard to find anything specific emerging from the Oval Office meeting.

• Benjamin Haddad, France’s Europe minister, poured cold water on the prospect of a quick trade deal. Speaking to France Info over the weekend, he said Trump’s 10% tariffs on EU imports was ‘not acceptable’. He also referred to the EU’s anti-coercion instrument, a powerful trade tool allowing the EU to hit back against unfair trade.

• Last week, 80 EU diplomats discussed ways the EU can fill the gap left by USAID cuts on pro-democracy groups, during a Brussels event organised by the EU’s Polish presidency.
• One option would be for the EC to review and redirect funds it pays out to support democracy and rights and judicial independence (some €950 million over 2021-2027) to make sure the money goes where it’s needed most. It could also earmark a small amount of the €800 billion it plans to spend on defence towards democracy.

• Poland wants to rally EU countries to include language on defending democracy in the conclusions of the next European Council (EUCO) gathering. Any pressure from capitals would feed into the EC’s work on the Democracy Shield initiative, which went out for public consultations late last month.

• The EU has issued its first fines against Big Tech under the Digital Markets Act, with Apple and Meta being hit with relatively modest penalties of €500 million and €200 million, respectively. The move is viewed as a strategic manoeuvre to evade Trump’s wrath, as the bloc bides its time before announcing any big-ticket fines.

• The European Commission (EC) will suggest measures to forbid companies from signing new oil and gas contracts with Moscow in an upcoming initiative to end the bloc’s reliance on Russian imports.
• The plan, expected to be revealed to EU members on 6 May, is part of Brussels’ broader strategy to eliminate Russian energy imports by 2027. The document will float several options for legally binding proposals or trade measures, Politico reports.
• While sanctioning Russian gas is unlikely due to opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, tariffs can be adopted by a qualified majority.

• EC President Ursula von der Leyen attended the ‘Future of Energy Security‘ summit in the UK last week, using the event to meet PM Keir Starmer.
• The meeting comes ahead of a UK-EU summit on 19 May, when both sides are expected to sign up to a defence deal. Talks have been bogged down so far with other non-defence issues like access to fishing waters, but reports suggest Britain would be willing to make ‘significant concessions’ to the EU in terms of rights.

Is a US-Russia deal ‘very close’? Trump mulls Moscow sanctions as his administration marks 100 days in power

UKRAINE

• President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described his encounter with Donald Trump ahead of the funeral of Pope Francis on 26 April as ‘potentially historic’, adding that the conversation focused on a full ceasefire, civilian protection and achieving a ‘reliable and lasting peace’. It came at a pivotal moment in efforts to end the war, as the Trump administration looks to evaluate its next move…

• After the Vatican meeting, the POTUS questioned whether Putin truly wants a peace deal and raised the possibility of imposing new sanctions on Russia.
• Trump had issued a rare rebuke of Putin earlier in the week, urging him to halt strikes on Ukraine after a major attack on Kyiv killed 12 and injured another 87.
• ‘It makes me think that maybe [Putin] doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through banking or secondary sanctions’, he said in Rome.

• On 25 April, however, Trump said the US and Russia were ‘very close to a deal’, following talks between envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the US plan to end the war in Ukraine.
• If reports are to be believed, the US is demanding that Russia accept Ukraine’s right to have its own army and defence industry – in what would be a key shift in the US approach. Ukraine would also get the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant back – though ceding its administration to the US – and keep secure access to the Dnieper River.
• On the flip side, the reported US proposal would also ease sanctions on Moscow – including restrictions on Nord Stream 2 – and recognise its control over Crimea, while freezing the current frontline.

• Zelenskyy said Kyiv is ready to negotiate directly with Moscow to end the war – marking another shift in approach – but dismissed the idea of ceding Crimea: ‘This violates our constitution. This is … the territory of the people of Ukraine’.
• In response, Trump again blamed Zelenskyy for holding up ceasefire negotiations, posting that: ‘We are very close to a Deal, but the man with ‘no cards to play’ should now, finally, GET IT DONE’.
• Putin, facing pressure from Trump, also expressed willingness to hold talks with Kyiv, despite insisting for years that Zelenskyy must be removed for talks to take place.

• This all comes as Zelenskyy feels the heat domestically about the ceasefire and a possible minerals deal with the US. The Ukrainian opposition is demanding that the president comes to the country’s parliament and update lawmakers, arguing that Zelenskyy and other officials involved in the talks aren’t sharing the details and don’t communicate properly.
• REPORT: ‘Ukraine’s internal political situation must be understood. The war has taken a severe toll, characterised by prolonged martial law, postponed elections, societal exhaustion, signs of stagflation, and ever-present tensions over conscription and governance’ – ‘Essential Ukraine’ by Balázs Jarábik.

• Kyiv has denied claims made by Putin on 26 April that Russian forces have fully retaken territory captured by Ukraine in Russia‘s Kursk region.
• ‘Ukrainian defensive operations in certain areas of Kursk Oblast continue’, said the General Staff in a Telegram message, adding that Putin’s comments ‘do not correspond to reality’.

• More than 1,500 foreign mercenaries from almost 50 countries were recruited in Moscow to fight for Russia in Ukraine between April 2023 and May 2024, as per a leak from Moscow’s Unified Medical Information and Analytical System.
• Russia has also publicly acknowledged for the first time that North Korean forces are fighting on its side against Ukraine, as General Valery Gerasimov praised North Korean DPRK soldiers for their efforts.

• At least 622 children have been killed and over 1,900 injured in Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, according to the General Prosecutor’s Office in Kyiv.

• EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas has warned leaders in Slovakia and Serbia to stay away from Moscow after they were invited to attend Russia‘s 9 May World War II anniversary celebrations.
• Kallas said Brussels would not ‘take it lightly’ if any EU leaders joined the Red Square, where Putin will be working hard to make a PR success. Instead, she urged Europeans to head to Kyiv on 9 May, as invited by Ukraine’s FM. Slovak PM Robert Fico was quick to rebuke Kallas, declaring that ‘can’t tell me what I can and can’t do’.

Tusk and Sikorski look to build ‘strongest army and economy in the region’; Orbán unlawfully hands pro-government media €1 billion

CZECHIA