THE CHEAP SEATS with STEVE CAMERON: Mariners' playoff hopes — trust the numbers, or the monkey?

May I introduce you to Marcel the Monkey? 

Oh, good. 

You’ll want to be close, I promise. 

What’s that? 

Ah, the obvious question: How do I know Marcel? 

You’ll see how natural it was for us to meet, especially when you understand what I was researching. 

Here’s what happened. 

I was looking at the Mariners’ overall statistics and checking to see how they compared with the rest of the American League. 

It’s fun diving into stats, certainly when you’re in first place.  

Anyhow, that led me straight to Baseball Reference, which can answer any of your questions, or point you in the proper direction. 

The very first thing I saw in B-Ref was that the Mariners were given a nailed-on chance to make the playoffs this fall. 

The percentage was 93.6, in fact. 

Their shot to win the World Series, in fact, was 8.4 percent. 

My first take when I saw those numbers was that they BOTH seemed out of whack: Something over 90 percent for the playoffs felt high, but shoot, if they’re such a breeze for the postseason, 8.4 percent seemed low to win it all. 

AH, BUT the Mariners would have trouble with the cream of the National League, right? 

I checked the Dodgers immediately, waiting for those numbers to blow up my computer. 

Nope. 

As of Thursday noon, Baseball Reference gave the Dodgers an 84.1 percent chance to make the playoffs, and just 6.8 percent to repeat as World Series champions. 

Huh? 

You’ll note immediately that both those numbers are lower than the Mariners. 

Can that be right?  

Maybe. 

The Dodgers have almost the entire pitching staff out injured, and their percentage for making the playoffs gets a hit from a loaded National League — plus the Padres and Giants to knock them around in the West. 

So, OK. 

Still, that eye-watering number for the Mariners making the playoffs seems astronomical. 

Yep, they’ve played well lately, but they started the year 3-7 (slumps ARE possible, and they tend to roost in Seattle sometime every summer), and they’ve got 10 guys dealing with injuries. 

TEN! 

Three are critical pitchers: Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Matt Brash. 

The rest: Victor Robles, Ryan Bliss, Luke Raley, Dylan Moore, Gregory Santos and Jackson Kowar. 

Yes, yes, you’re probably counting and that’s only nine of the wounded. 

Well, I’m counting one half in sick bay for Jorge Polanco, the greatest hitter since Ted Williams, who has a problem with his side and can only swing left-handed. 

Thus, our total is 9 1/2. 

You know, that might make a good title for a movie. 

No? 

Whether the playoff prediction happens to be right or just nonsense, I had to know how Baseball Reference pulls up these numbers. 

The official response:  

“Baseball Reference prediction figures, like playoff odds, are generated through simulations and statistical models based on team performance and projection systems. They combine historical data with current performance to estimate future outcomes.  

“Baseball Reference uses simulations, often running 1000 iterations, to model the remainder of the season and playoffs.  

The estimated quality of each team is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games, even if it spans multiple seasons.  

“A regression to the mean factor is included, suggesting that teams' performances tend to revert towards their average ability over time.  

“Baseball Reference utilizes various projection systems, including those from Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs, to forecast future win rates and team performance.”  

Got it. 

UH, SO where does the monkey fit into all of this? 

Marcel the Monkey is the name of a baseball prediction system invented by a gentleman named Tom Tango. 

Yes, really. 

If you go deep enough into the “seamhead” world, a monkey invented by Tango would sound perfectly normal. 

There are prediction methods called Oliver, Steamer and many, many more. 

You’ll appreciate Marcel the most, though, because Tango set out to create the simplest, easiest, basic formula to give us everyday baseball geeks a chance. 

Here’s Tango: 

“It is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. 

“It uses three years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor. 

I do not stand behind these forecasts. Consider me only a trustee of the system.” 

Fair enough, Tom. 

When a forecast blows up in this column, I hope readers think of me as a simple trustee. 

Let’s hear it for Marcel. 

Email: scameron@cdapress.com 

Steve Cameron’s “Cheap Seats” columns appear in The Press three times each week, normally Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday unless, you know, stuff happens. 

Steve suggests you take his opinions in the spirit of a Jimmy Buffett song: “Breathe In, Breathe Out, Move On.”