VATICAN CITY - Black smoke billowing from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel on Wednesday evening signaled an inconclusive first vote to pick the next pontiff, pushing the next ballots to Thursday after a day of Latin chants echoing off sacred marble halls and a high procession of cardinals - the next pope surely among them.
After a cry of “Extra omnes,” or “everyone out,” by an archbishop, the doors of the Sistine Chapel were shut around 5:44 p.m. as the conclave began amid hermetic secrecy. Speculation swirled that the throne of St. Peter could go to a first pontiff from the United States. Just as many voices heralded the chances of three Italians and a come-from-behind Spaniard serving in Morocco. A Filipino, a Frenchman, a Congolese and a long-monastic Swede are also among the names being floated.
Yet as all eyes await the white smoke signaling Habemus Papam - “We have a pope” - the wisest watchers offer a warning: Nobody really knows who will be the next pope at a time of deep division within the church.
The smoke appeared
More than three hours after the conclave began, the smoke appeared. A crowd gathered outside the chapel roared, then began to disperse when it was clear there was no new pope. Ismael Rivera, 43, a computer engineer from Peru visiting with his family, said he knew the selection was unlikely after a first vote, but “I wanted to be part of it either way,” he said.
The cardinals under the age of 80 - including nearly two dozen from countries that have never had a voice in a conclave before - will be sequestered for voting, released only to return to their boardinghouse for meals and rest, until a new pope is chosen. Under the ceiling depicting Michelangelo’s outstretched God creating Adam, there will be no interpreters, no speeches, no lobbying (theoretically). Only prayer, chatter and votes.
To avoid secular influence - and in 2025, viral social media - the prelates are asked not to bring their cellphones. One cardinal who is ill may be permitted to vote from his room.
In the hour after the white smoke but before the new pope’s name is announced in Latin from the central balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, the tea-leaf reading begins. Had a decision come on Wednesday, it could have signified the elevation of a familiar cardinal seen as a pillar of stability. Or that a star had electrified the conclave.
Bracing for a marathon
Beginning on Thursday, four votes will be held during each full-day session. Popes Francis and Benedict XVI were elected in five and four votes, respectively. If that pattern holds, a decision could come on Thursday. If the process extends to a third day - or longer - it may signal deep disagreement. The last conclave to last five days was in 1922.
Since Francis’ death, cardinals have outlined conflicting visions for the future of the church, and some have warned of a marathon. In the largest conclave in history - with 133 voting members - so many cardinals are unfamiliar with one another that the pre-conclave morning assemblies were extended into the afternoon. Not all speak fluent Italian, Vatican City’s working language.
“We hope the new Pope will arrive in three (or) four days,” Chaldean Patriarch Cardinal Louis Raphael Sako told journalists this week.
In an act of high ceremony, most cardinals, singing the Litany of the Saints as they entered the chapel, wore red garments with a sash, rochet vestment, mozzetta cape and a pectoral cross with red and gold cord, along with a ring, zucchetto skullcap and biretta hat. Cardinals from the Eastern churches wore their own “choir dress,” according to the Vatican.
The new pope’s identity will be revealed to the public - along with the rest of the people of God - when a senior cardinal announces his birth name and papal name from St. Peter’s central balcony. When the new pontiff emerges for his address, the scrutiny will begin.
Will he choose the simple white robes and black shoes of Francis, or return to the red slippers and velvet mozzetta favored by Benedict? Will he address the crowd humbly, as Francis did, calling himself the “bishop of Rome” and asking the faithful to pray for him?
“Popes are always compared to their predecessors,” said the Rev. Thomas Reese, 80, a veteran Vatican watcher now in Rome who also covered the 2005 and 2013 conclaves. “Catholics tend to support whoever is pope,” he added. “But who knows this time in the age of social media.”
Though it’s long been said that no American would be chosen pope - given the country’s outsize global power - recent whispers have pointed to Cardinal Robert Prevost, a Chicago native who has spent most of his career in Peru and Rome, and New York’s traditionalist Archbishop, Cardinal Timothy Dolan.
An American? A Spaniard? A monastic Swede?
Prevost is seen as a pragmatist. Francis selected him to lead the powerful bishop-picking department at the Vatican, making him well-known among voting cardinals. Dolan, perhaps the most recognizable American bishop, is a St. Louis native who worked in Milwaukee before moving to New York - a gregarious, media-savvy figure who prayed at President Donald Trump’s 2025 inauguration.
Some observers say Dolan’s high profile could help him break through the traditional Vatican resistance to an American pontiff.
Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero, a Spaniard and archbishop of Rabat, Morocco, has also drawn attention. Known for his humility, he reportedly impressed his peers with his pre-conclave remarks and demeanor, echoing Francis’s rise in 2013.
“I’m fully in tune with everything Francis proposed - his way of acting, speaking and leading,” López Romero said last week to the news agency of his Salesian religious order. “But I don’t say, ‘I belong to Francis.’ I’m of Christ. I’m of the Gospel. And if I love Francis, it’s because he’s pure Gospel.”
Decades in monastic life
No candidate is publicly campaigning, and most are demurring, as is customary. Swedish Cardinal Anders Arborelius, a Catholic convert in a Protestant-majority country who spent decades in monastic life, said he has been mobbed by patriotic Swedes celebrating his chances.
“It’s a bit ridiculous in Sweden that Swedes are so nationalistic,” Arborelius told The Washington Post. Someone he knows, he said, had asked an AI bot about his chances. Arborelius said he was relieved to hear they were in the single digits.
“I was very happy. Because I don’t have this strong leadership - what do you call it? - management type,” he said.
He acknowledged the deep divisions among cardinals. Some are seeking an evangelizer to face “many difficult issues,” including “the war in Europe” and “Trump in America.” But it remains unclear whether the church needs a “prophetic figure” who is “charismatic,” or someone more transitional, “like Benedict.”
Western Catholic conservatives have been highly visible ahead of the conclave. The California-based Napa Institute, which promotes free-market principles and traditional views on marriage and reproductive issues, reportedly hosted cardinals in Rome at upscale restaurants and fundraisers, according to the National Catholic Reporter.
Japanese Cardinal Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi addressed concerns this week when asked whether politics was playing a role.
“No, I don’t think so. But maybe money … it’s a very sensitive issue,” he said.
Migration, Arborelius said, is one recurring issue among the cardinals.
“If you take that issue, migration … we know it’s a political issue in many countries, but it’s also kind of biblical,” he said. “The people of Israel, Abraham, migrated. The church is built up from migrants.
“It’s part of human history where God brings people to different places,” he added. “And when we look for a person to guide the church, it has to be someone who somehow answers what we would have seen in Jesus himself - who somehow has to reflect something of his mystery.”
Asked about harsh critiques of Francis from some cardinals, Cardinal Michael Czerny, a Czech-born Canadian prelate and longtime senior Vatican official, called them typical of the social media age and today’s unfiltered news cycles.
“Francis invited debate,” he said. “He would not want to be seen as beyond criticism.”
Asked if nationality was a factor in the process, he added: “I hope not, because it shouldn’t be.”