MIDTERM REPORT: Two Years On, the Good, the Bad, the Ridiculous…

Chiemelie Ezeobi, Chuks Okocha, Ndubuisi Francis, Emmanuel Addeh, Onyebuchi Ezigbo, James Emejo, Alex Enumah, Linus Aleke, Kazeem Sumaina, Kuni Tyesi, Folalumi Alaran, Emma Okonji, Chinedu Eze

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, alongside his Vice President, Kashim Shettima, assumed office on May 29, 2023 on the back of a campaign to revitalise the nation’s economy, enhance infrastructure, and address the country’s long-standing security challenges

After taking the reins of power, Tinubu immediately embarked on the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of the naira exchange rate, policies he said were designed to stabilise fiscal imbalances and attract foreign investment.

Also, worthy of mention is the ongoing complete overhaul of the nation’s tax system, meant to boost revenue, reduce reliance on borrowing, and ensure long-term economic stability.

Through the reform, the government aims to expand the tax base and improve collection efficiency by simplifying tax laws, consolidating outdated legislation, and introducing more equitable tax rates.

While these measures have garnered praise, especially from international financial institutions, they have also precipitated a cost-of-living crisis, with inflation surging and many Nigerians facing increased economic hardship.

Over the last two years, these initiatives, among several others, including the struggle to engender a comprehensive security architecture, closing the infrastructure gap, attracting investment to the oil and gas sector, have been met with scrutiny in terms of their successes and challenges.

On security, for instance, in spite of the renewed attention to making the country safer, there appears to be something fundamentally wrong with the strategy of the government to tackle criminal activities nationwide.

From Borno, which has seen the resurgence of the Boko Haram terrorists, to the killing fields in Benue and Plateau, the government, for want of a better word, now comes across as helpless.

As the administration reflects on its achievements and shortcomings at its midterm point, the nation stands at a crossroads, weighing the promises of reform against the realities on the ground. 

While his supporters argue that he’s laying a strong foundation for Nigeria’s future, others believe that the administration has totally derailed.

Although Tinubu’s first two years in office have been marked by these bold economic reforms, ambitious infrastructure blueprints, and an aggressive push to reposition Nigeria on the global stage, yet the pace and cost of these policies have drawn sharp criticism from citizens and observers alike.

In this review, THISDAY delves into the progress made so far as well as some of the challenges, some of which have seemed insurmountable in the last two years.

Contentious Fuel Subsidy Removal

The Tinubu administration made a courageous, but controversial move by removing fuel subsidies shortly after assuming office in May 2023. The removal was aimed at eliminating the multi-decade fiscal burden on the federal government as its retention meant that Nigeria had been spending billions of dollars annually to keep fuel prices artificially low.

While this policy of ending fuel subsidy was praised by economists for promoting market efficiency and reducing corruption, it also sparked widespread public outcry due to the immediate hike in fuel prices, which led to inflationary pressures on food, transport, and other essential goods.

Although the government attempted to cushion the impact through palliative measures, such as cash transfers and food distribution, critics argue these efforts have been insufficient.

Overall, although the subsidy removal marked a major policy shift, signaling a commitment to structural reform, many Nigerians have questioned the transparency with which the so-called savings from the subsidy removal policy are being managed.

So far, Nigerians have not been briefed as to where these monies are being kept or the projects that  they have been invested in.

Downstream Deregulation/Altercation

Following the fuel subsidy removal, the Tinubu administration pursued the deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector. This move allowed market forces to determine fuel prices, ended state monopolies, and opened the sector to increased private investment.

In all, even though the much-delayed deregulation was aimed at improving efficiency, encourage competition, and attract foreign investment, however, challenges remain, including price volatility, limited domestic refining capacity, and concerns over profiteering.

Nonetheless, deregulation represents a significant step towards a liberalised energy market and is expected to improve the sector’s long-term viability, despite all the controversies that have come along with it.

Meanwhile, the altercations between the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), which has continued to issue import licences to oil marketers, and the  Dangote refinery, which has raised concerns over the matter, have been a sore point in the process.

On the other hand, the management of the 650,000 bpd Dangote facility had accused the NNPC of massive product importation despite the capacity of the refinery to meet the fuel demand of Nigerians.

CNG Initiative: Good Idea, Poor Execution

To address the economic strain caused by fuel subsidy removal, this administration introduced a Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) initiative as a cheaper, cleaner alternative to petrol. The CNG programme is part of a  wider energy transition strategy aimed at reducing Nigeria’s carbon footprint while making transportation more affordable.

To this end, government-backed incentives were introduced to support the establishment of CNG conversion centres and fueling stations across the country. The programme also includes partnerships with private firms for vehicle conversion and infrastructure development.

However, the implementation has faced logistical challenges and even though it is getting patronage from Nigerians after the initial pessimism, one of the primary issues has been the lack of infrastructure to support widespread CNG usage.

Till today, filling stations equipped to dispense CNG are scarce, particularly outside major cities, making it difficult for vehicle owners to access the product conveniently. Additionally, the cost of converting existing petrol-powered vehicles to run on CNG remains prohibitive for many Nigerians, despite selective subsidy.

Also, monitoring remains a challenge as the ‘anyhowness’ by private partners who are working with the federal government has continued to reach new levels. A number of the conversion centres have insufficient parts needed for the switch from petrol to gas. Besides, there’s almost zero customer service.

Unless these structural issues are addressed, the transition to CNG risks becoming another well-intentioned but poorly executed policy in Nigeria’s energy landscape.

Meanwhile, despite government’s efforts to promote CNG vehicles as a cost-effective and environmentally friendly alternative, the proliferation of unauthorised conversions and inadequate safety measures at refuelling stations have raised serious concerns.

The so many cases of explosions recorded across the country have highlighted the risks associated with unauthorised modifications with experts and regulatory bodies calling for stricter enforcement of safety standards and greater public awareness to prevent further incidents and ensure the safe use of CNG vehicles in Nigeria. 

Wobbly Restart of PH, Warri Refineries

One of the milestones of the Tinubu administration was the partial resumption of operations at the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries. These facilities had been dormant for years due to mismanagement and lack of maintenance.

The revival, led by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), was part of the  push to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined products.

However, full capacity operations are yet to be achieved. While the Warri refinery is not producing petrol at all, the Port Harcourt refinery shut down last week for what the NNPC said was for scheduled maintenance, just about five months after it resumed operations.

Expedited Completion of IOCs’ Divestments

A major achievement of the Tinubu administration in the last two years, was overseeing the conclusion of divestments by several International Oil Companies (IOCs) from onshore and shallow water assets.

The conclusion of the process had been unnecessarily delayed by the Muhammadu Buhari administration. But under Tinubu, progress was made and quickly too. The long-pending divestments of onshore assets included those of  Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and TotalEnergies.

Tinubu’s government prioritised the finalisation of these transactions, aiming to foster a more stable investment climate and empower indigenous players.

By midterm, all the outstanding divestments had been concluded, with Nigerian authorities fast-tracking ministerial approvals previously delayed under regulatory uncertainties.  The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) under the Tinubu administration also provided clearer guidelines on asset transfer conditions, including  decommissioning liabilities and host community obligations.

The government’s approach balanced investor exit rights with national interest, ensuring that new indigenous operators could meet technical, financial, and environmental obligations.

Shake-up at NNPC

It was a long time coming but when Tinubu decided to do it, it was almost a clean sweep. In 2023, Tinubu allowed Mele Kyari to continue as Group CEO of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), transitioning into its commercial phase under the PIA.

For a long time, efforts to open up the NNPC’s operations to more scrutiny were largely unsuccessful. However, Nigerians expect that with the new leadership of the national oil company, led by Bayo Ojulari, there will be more openness in the operation of the company.

Under the former management, a number of the crude-for-loans deals were mainly done with  the public kept in the dark. Many Nigerians see the sacking of the erstwhile board as a good first step towards sanitising the national oil company.

However, the next few months will determine whether the new management will continue in the steps of the former or chart a more honest and transparent course.

Raising Oil Production

Raising Nigeria’s oil production has been a core economic goal of Tinubu’s administration. Output had fallen to around 1 million to 1.2 million barrels per day in 2022 due to oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment.

By Tinubu’s midterm, there have been modest gains, with production now around 1.7 million bpd, plus condensate. The president’s strategy combined technical, security, and regulatory measures.

The ramping up of Operation Delta Sanity by the Nigerian Navy as well as the renewed security contracts with local firms like Tantita Security Services, to combat theft in the Niger Delta, are yielding results.

These contracts contributed to a measurable reduction in illegal bunkering and pipeline breaches. Though challenges persist, there has been a steady increase in the country’s oil output.

Power Sector Reforms

The Tinubu administration has taken steps to revitalise Nigeria’s ailing power sector through targeted reforms aimed at improving electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. But whether these efforts will significantly turnaround the sector remain to be seen.

Key efforts include the unbundling of regulatory functions of the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), the  rise in ready-to-use power generation to around 6,000mw as well as support for off-grid solutions such as mini-grids and solar home systems to enhance rural electrification.

Also, the National Integrated Electricity Policy (NIEP), which outlines a roadmap to attract $122.2 billion in investments between 2024 and 2045, seeks to diversify Nigeria’s energy mix.

There has also been a  focus on improving the financial health of the power sector.  In 2024, the sector experienced a significant revenue boost, with an additional N700 billion realised, marking a 70 per cent increase compared to previous years, especially with the about 230 per cent in tariffs for Band ‘A’.

However, persistent issues such as inadequate metering, vandalism of electricity assets, epileptic power supply and illiquidity in the sector continue to persist.

Road Infrastructure: Still a Long Way

The current administration has attempted to expand Nigeria’s infrastructure.  A flagship project was the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, a 700 km, multi-trillion-naira expressway linking the South-West to the South-South. Despite controversy over procurement and environmental impact, the project has moved forward, although still at the early stages.

In addition, major corridors like the Abuja-Kano, Lagos-Ibadan, and East-West roads are seeing continued rehabilitation and dualisation. The administration is also exploring tolling as a sustainable funding model.

Although still a far cry or even a scratch on the surface, overall, the Tinubu administration has  shown commitment to infrastructure, but implementation pace and fiscal challenges are key concerns.

 Anti-graft Fight

One of the key agenda of Tinubu’s administration was to eradicate corruption, which is the major bane of Nigeria’s socio-economic development. The core mandate of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is to investigate and prosecute economic and financial crimes.

There is no doubt that the anti-graft agency has recorded some successes in pursuit of its core mandate, under the last two years of Tinubu.

A major success which can be regarded as a landmark achievement in the Commission’s history, is the “single largest asset recovery” of a total of 753 duplexes and other apartments, on an Abuja property measuring 150,500 square metres.

Also, a few days after the recovery of the Abuja property, the anti-graft agency also secured another final forfeiture of a property, along the Lagos Ibadan expressway. The property is a warehouse measuring 1.925 hectares and situated on Km 8, along Lagos- Ibadan Expressway, Magboro.

In the area of monetary asset recovery,  the anti-graft agency between October 18, 2023 – October 18, 2024, recovered a total sum of N248,750,049,365.52 in local currency alone.

 However, the failure of the Commission to prosecute some key prominent figures seems to support the claim that the anti-graft agency’s battle against corruption is selective.

Increase in Minimum Wage

The Tinubu-led administration came on the heels of workers agitation for the review of the old minimum wage of N30,000. After some period of waiting, in January 2024, he acceded to the demand of the labour unions to constitute the National Minimum Wage Committee to negotiate a new minimum  wage for the country.

After weeks of stalled negotiations, back-and-forth proposals and growing public frustration, the federal government finally struck a deal with labour leaders to peg the national minimum wage at N70,000.

Expansion of PHCs

Under the present administration, Nigeria is actively revitalising its Primary Healthcare Centres (PHC) with a focus on improving access, service delivery, and overall health outcomes. The government’s strategy involves infrastructure upgrades, capacity building for healthcare workers, and a four-point agenda to improve PHC strategies and mobilise resources.

The administration set a target to revitalise a total of 17, 000 Primary Healthcare Centres within four years. Already, the Minister of Health and Social Welfare Prof Ali Mohammad Pate said that 1,003 of the PHCs have been revitalised nationwide, with an additional 5,500 undergoing the process of rehabilitation in various states.

N50bn for Academic/Non-academic  Unions

The federal government recently approved the release of N50 billion to be shared by all federal government-owned universities in the country. In approving the money, the government specifically said the fund was for payment of earned allowances for all deserving staff of the institutions.

However, the unions  have issued statements rejecting the sharing formula as approved by the National Universities Commission (NUC). Traditionally ASUU has always laid claim to what it called Earned  Academic Allowance which it said is for only its members putting extra work load.

Quiet in Transportation Ministry

Although he started well, not much has recently been heard of the Minister of Transportation,  Senator Said Alkali, who was given the mantle of leadership at the transportation ministry by  Tinubu on August 20, 2023.

Checks showed that the only visible project currently ongoing is the Kano-Kaduna rail project inherited under the administration of Muhammadu Buhari and with Chibuike Amaechi as the then minister.

The 203 kilometres project, on completion in 2026 would have three major stations at Rigachikun, Zaria and Kano.

Aside from the above, the federal government provided 50 per cent road and 100 per cent free rail transport palliatives for Nigerians during the 2023 and 2024 festive seasons, to cushion the effects of transport cost.

However, there are constant breakdown on the Itakpe-Ajaokuta-Warri rail corridors. Also, there’s no concrete reports of work in the Port Harcourt-Aba-Enugu rail project; Port Harcourt – Maiduguri rail project and the Kano-Katsina- Maradi projects.

 Security: Still a Huge Challenge

Under the Tinubu administration, the only places that have not been violently violated by criminal syndicates are probably the State House in Abuja and Government Houses across the federation, literally speaking.

There is hardly a day that passes without citizens being kidnapped in their homes or on their way to farm, work, parties, or markets. This is in addition to banditry and farmer-herder crises that have denied many locals access to their farms.

The highways are increasingly becoming unsafe, not just because of the bad state of the roads, but also because of kidnapping, besides armed robbery and cultism, which are making life unbearable for residents.

To further confirm the escalating security threats, statements by security agencies, especially the military and the police, are punctuated with reports of arrests and killings of terrorists, bandits, kidnappers, secessionist agitators, as well as the rescue of kidnapped hostages.

Recently, the terror attacks seem to have moved to military bases as these terrorists have launched a new phase of offensive relying on tech and artificial intelligence.

Rise in Killings

There has been an escalation of killings of innocent and unarmed citizens by organised criminal groups across the federation. From the North-east, where there’s a resurgence of the Boko Haram fighters, to the North-west, the epicentre of banditry activities and to the North-central, where marauding invaders are running riot.

In the South-east, South-south, and South-west, herders, cultists, kidnappers and other criminal cells are having a field day.

 Regrettably, the marauding invaders, terrorists, and other criminal gangs have continued undeterred despite the coordinated operations by the military and other security agencies that had led to the killings of many of them.

The Minister of Defence, Badaru Abubakar, revealed that no fewer than 13,543 of the criminals were killed between May 2023 and February 2025. This, he said, is in addition to the arrest of over 17,000 suspected criminals.

Unending Kidnapping Cases

The occasional abduction of school children and community members by terrorist groups and bandits has gradually metamorphosed into a multi-billion-dollar industry called kidnapping in Nigeria.

No region in the country today can boast of being free from the kidnappers. Little wonder the military and other security agencies now count the arrest and rescue of kidnap victims as major operational achievements.

NELFUND to the Rescue

The student loan initiative, a programme established by the federal government to mop up all financial barriers of students willing to pursue their education up to tertiary level, but facing financial constraints couldn’t have come at a better time than now. 

It’s fast becoming one of the most impactful student-focused interventions in Nigeria’s recent history, and is already revolutionising higher education accessibility in the country through its interest free loan. Like most initiatives, it has had its share of challenges.

 Issues bogging the initiative include late disbursements of funds, which in many cases force students to pay from their pockets and subsequently get entangled with their various institutions.

Marking one year since its launch and the opening of its student portal in May, 2024, hundreds of thousands of students have registered with over 550,000 successful loan applications and disbursement of N57.85 billion to cover tuition and allowances.

Mining Sector Gets Needed Attention

Two years into the administration of Tinubu, one sector that has witnessed bold reforms and renewed attention is the mining industry. Determined to diversify Nigeria’s economy beyond oil, the Tinubu administration has repositioned solid minerals development as a strategic pillar for growth, job creation, and foreign investment.

Shortly after his appointment, the Minister of Solid Minerals Development, Dr. Dele Alake, declared a state of emergency in the sector, citing widespread illegal mining and its link to insecurity, especially in the northern region. To tackle the menace, the government adopted a dual strategy—security enforcement and sector formalisation.

In early 2024, the federal government launched a special security outfit known as the Mining Marshals, starting with 2,220 personnel and later scaling up to 2,670. Operatives were deployed across all 36 states and the FCT to protect legal mining operations. So far, over 300 illegal miners have been arrested, with about 150 facing prosecution in states such as Kogi, Nasarawa, Kaduna, and Niger.

Simultaneously, the government gave illegal miners a 30-day window to register as cooperatives. Over 250 artisanal mining cooperatives have been formed, leading to the creation of more than 70,000 jobs within a year.

In terms of regulation, the ministry revoked 1,633 licences for non-compliance and another 924 dormant titles to sanitise the licencing regime. A modified electronic platform (eMC+) has now made license applications faster and more transparent, attracting over 10,000 fresh applications in the last year.

One of the administration’s most notable achievements is the sector’s revenue growth. In 2024, it generated N38 billion, surpassing the projected N11 billion. The Mining Cadastral Office alone raised N7 billion in Q1 2025, while 118 new mineral buying centres were registered in the same period—reflecting rising investor confidence.

Another key reform is the Value Addition Policy, which mandates companies to include local processing plans in their licence applications. This has led to the commissioning of new facilities in Nasarawa and Niger States, where lithium and tin are now being processed locally.

While the mining sector’s contribution to GDP remains modest, rising slightly from N1.66 trillion in 2022 to N1.76 trillion in 2023, the foundation for long-term growth has been laid.

Stakeholders, however, caution that unresolved issues such as multiple taxation, state interference, and infrastructure deficits must be addressed for the sector to fully thrive.

Stunted Growth in ICT

The growth in Nigeria’s Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector declined in the last two years of President Tinubu’s administration. Growth rates are measured by increased internet usage and advancement in technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoTs), and Blockchain technology among others, which contribute to Gross Domestic Growth (GDP) of a country. 

Internet subscriptions in the last two years declined, which largely affected ICT growth across the country.

According to the recent statistics released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), the telecoms industry regulator, the number of subscribers for data internet services in Nigeria had reached 163 million in December 2023, but the subscription figure continued to decline, until it reached 141 million as at April 2025.

Internet subscription dropped from 163 million in December 2023 to 161 million in January 2024, with a further drop to 137 million in May 2024. Internet subscription dropped again to 136 million in June 2024, with a further drop to 134 million in July 2024, before declining further to 131 million in August 2024.

However, from September 2024 to January 2024, there was slight increase in the growth of internet subscription, as the figures grew slightly from 132 million in September 2024 to 134 million in October 2024, before reaching 139 million internet subscriptions in December 2024 and 142 million subscriptions in January 2025.

Nigerians are connected more to the internet via mobile GSM network, than the Fixed Wired and Wireless networks.

Aside from the decline in internet subscription, ICT contribution to GDP in the last two years has been unstable. It dropped from 16.06 per cent in Q2, 2023 to 13.50 per cent in Q3, 2023, before rising slightly to 14 per cent in Q4, 2023 and 14.58 per cent in Q1, 2024.

ICT contribution however reached as high as 16.36 per cent in Q2, 2024, but declined to 13.94 per cent in Q3, 2024, before rising slightly to 14.40 per cent in Q4, 2024.   

Digital Economy Slows Down

Digital economy growth is largely dependent on the level of broadband penetration of any nation, since broadband drives device and network connectivity, including e-commerce growth.

But in the last two years, there has been a slow growth rate in broadband penetration. Again, the 70 per cent broadband penetration target by the end of 2025, is far from being achieved, since the current broadband penetration rate is 48.15 per cent as of April 2025.

Investment in the telecoms sector has also declined in the last two years, owing to rising cost of telecoms equipment.

Also, the 5G network that is driving digital transformation through the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has not been fully adopted in Nigeria, since MTN and Airtel launched 5G services in Nigeria in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

Since the commercial launch, only few states have been sparsely covered and the adoption rate in the few states covered has been very slow, thus limiting digital economy transformation and growth in the past two years. 

No Serious Work on Electoral Reforms

The 10th National Assembly after its inauguration in June 2023 made it a part of its legislative agenda, the task of carrying out key reforms that would enhance transparency, inclusivity, and the overall credibility of elections in the country. However, no serious targets have been met.

So far, the Senate Committee has only had meetings with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), while the House of Representatives has set up a special technical committee to review the Act and propose amendments. 

However, areas of concern include reducing the dominance of political parties, attempting to establish an autonomous electoral offences commission and  unbundling of INEC.

Other key proposed amendments cover expansion of voting rights by accommodating Diaspora voting, inmate voting and early and special voting.

 Thumbs Up in Aviation Sector

Significant changes have been taking place in the aviation industry in the two years of this administration. Industry stakeholders have variously commended President Tinubu for the choice of the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, who has made significant impact by pushing policies that are transforming the sector.

The administration started with the release of over $800 million of foreign airlines revenue, which was trapped in Nigeria, since 2016 to the international carriers, prompting the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to specially commend Nigeria for the prompt payment under a new administration.

Keyamo, a few days after taking over as Minister, directed that airlines on international flight service to relocate to the newly built terminal at the Murtala Muhammed Airport, Lagos hitherto shunned by the operators for alleged lack of capacity.

At that time fire had gutted the baggage movement area of the old terminal and made passenger processing and flight operations difficult. Since then the administration has equipped the new terminal with modern security facilities, e-gate, which enables passengers to access the departures without resort to physical interaction.

The forex stability under the administration facilitated the open buyer and open seller policy, which has made it easy for Nigerian carriers to access dollars to acquire aircraft and spares.

Tinubu’s administration made a 10-point policy that it must support domestic airlines and mobilised policies and resources to do so. The minister disclosed at the weekend that the federal government would no longer push for the establishment of national carrier; rather, it would now give full support to the growth and expansion of domestic airlines.

Under the two years of this government, the Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria (FAAN) has renewed  infrastructure at many of Nigeria’s airports, rehabilitated the runways and earned the certification of the Lagos and Abuja airports by the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), in accordance to the regulations of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO).

Forex Market Unification

In June 2023, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) under Mr. Olayemi Cardoso effected significant reforms in the Foreign Exchange Market, unifying the country’s multiple FX windows into a single market. 

The move was aimed to enhance transparency, improve liquidity, as well as stabilise the Naira which was under immense pressure at the time.

Prior to the FX unification, Nigeria operated multiple exchange rate windows, including the official rate, the Investors & Exporters (I&E) window, and the parallel (black) market. 

This system was riddled with inefficiencies, arbitrage opportunities, and a lack of transparency. 

However, the unification policy consolidated these into a single, market-driven window known as the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM). 

Under this system, exchange rates are determined by a “willing buyer, willing seller” model, allowing market forces to set the naira’s value. 

The single window enhances transparency and efficiency and minimises confusion and creates a more predictable environment for businesses and investors.

The unified FX window also increased investor confidence – allowing market forces to determine exchange rates , a policy that has attracted foreign investors, leading to increased capital inflows. 

Essentially,  reforms in the FX market resulted in relative stability currently observed in the market.

The CBN’s FX market unification was a remarkable step toward a more transparent and efficient FX system, and lays the groundwork for long-term economic stability and growth.

The initiative boosted the country Foreign Exchange Reserves accretion as net foreign exchange reserves reached $23.11 billion in 2024, the highest in three years. 

Essentially, FX unification had mitigated exchange rate volatility by over 4 per cent a year ago to less than half of 1 per cent currently, in further evidence of stability resulting from the policy implementation.

Tax Reforms, Fiscal Policy Overhaul

As part of efforts to modernise the tax system, enhance revenue generation, and stimulate economic growth, Tinubu initiated a comprehensive overhaul of the country’s  tax and fiscal policies on assumption of office in 2023.

The tax and fiscal reforms represented a significant shift in Nigeria’s economic policy, aiming for long-term stability and growth.

In July 2023, the president established the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, chaired by Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, a renowned fiscal policy expert and former Africa Tax Leader at PwC. The committee’s mandate was to overhaul Nigeria’s tax system to enhance revenue generation, promote economic growth, and improve fiscal governance. 

The committee’s work is structured around three core pillars, including  fiscal governance, revenue transformation, and economic growth facilitation.

These pillars encompass five dimensions and ten deliverables, focusing on simplifying tax laws, harmonising revenue collection, and enhancing the efficiency of public spending. 

Essentially, the key components of the tax and fiscal reforms included four major tax reform bills which have now been passed by the National Assembly and awaiting the president’s assent to become law.

The bills include: the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill 2024; Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill 2024; Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill 2024, and the Nigeria Tax Bill 2024.

The proposed legislations aimed to simplify and modernise the country’s tax system, making it more efficient and transparent.

Among others, the reform proposed Value-Added Tax (VAT) adjustment, increasing the VAT rate from 7.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent by 2026. 

Also, to mitigate the impact on low-income households, essential items such as food and medicine, which constitute a significant portion of household spending, are exempted from VAT.  This measure is expected to help reduce inflation from 34.8 per cent to 15 per cent.

Under the new tax regime, small businesses with annual earnings below N50 million are exempted from corporate income tax.

The corporate income tax rate for larger companies is set to decrease from 27.5 per cent in 2025 to 25 per cent by 2026, with the objective to encourage business growth and investment.

Tinubu also signed several executive orders to ease the tax burden on businesses and individuals.

These included the suspension of the 5 per cent excise tax on telecommunications services, suspension of the Green Tax on single-use plastics and certain vehicle imports and the postponement of the effective dates for certain tax changes to provide adequate notice to taxpayers among other aspects of the reforms.

National Agric Development Fund as Agricultural, Economic Reform

Established in 2023 with an initial allocation of N100 billion, the National Agricultural Development Fund (NADF) represents a central component of Tinubu’s agricultural and economic reform agenda. 

The NADF was created to address longstanding financing challenges in the country’s agricultural sector and to drive sustainable food security and rural development. 

The fund serves as Nigeria’s primary vehicle for agricultural financing and modernisation, and provides consistent funding across the entire agricultural value chain. The initiative focuses inputs and implements, supplying seeds, fertilisers, and mechanised tools.

It also invests in irrigation systems, rural roads, and storage facilities and offers rapid support during agricultural crises, such as disease outbreaks.

The NADF is also involved in funding agricultural research and promoting technology adoption.  To boost the country’s mechanisation drive, the president mandated the NADF to lead the deployment of 10,000 John Deere tractors over five years, starting with 2,000 units in 2025.  This initiative aims to boost productivity, create jobs, and modernise farming practices.

The NADF also provided swift intervention during the 2024 ginger blight epidemic in Kaduna State, which devastated approximately 10,000 hectares of farmland.  The Fund’s rapid response helped stabilise the ginger value chain and support affected farmers. 

To realise the food security mandate of the federal government, and combat rising food prices, the NADF facilitated the release of 42,000 metric tonnes of grains, including sorghum, millet, maize, and 60,000 metric tonnes of rice, to vulnerable populations, thereby stabilising food supply and prices. 

The NADF is collaborating with agencies such as the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA) to integrate advanced technologies such as drones, Internet of Things (IoT), and blockchain into agricultural practices, enhancing efficiency and productivity. 

 Big Wins in Customs Reforms

Since taking office in 2023, the president has implemented significant reforms within the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) to enhance trade facilitation, boost revenue generation, and strengthen border security. 

In 2023, Tinubu signed the Nigeria Customs Service Act into law, replacing outdated regulations and providing a modern legal framework for customs operations. 

The revised Act aimed to improve efficiency, transparency, and accountability within the NCS, and aligns customs practices with international standards, facilitating smoother trade relations. 

Also, in June 2023, recognising the need for competent leadership, Tinubu appointed Bashir Adewale Adeniyi as the Comptroller-General of Customs.

Adeniyi, a seasoned customs officer with over 30 years of experience, was tasked with driving the modernisation and reform agenda of the NCS.  His appointment marked a shift towards professionalising the service and enhancing its operational capabilities. 

Under the new leadership, the NCS has undertaken significant modernisation efforts, including the adoption of advanced technologies for customs operations to streamline processes, reduce corruption, and improve service delivery. 

The reforms have been acknowledged for boosting the operational effectiveness of the NCS and enhancing revenues for the country.  The reforms implemented by customs have resulted in improved revenue collection by the service, contributing significantly to the nation’s economy. 

As recently disclosed by Adeniyi, the NCS recorded an unprecedented N1.3 trillion revenue in the first quarter of 2025, representing over 100 per cent increase from the N600 billion it collected during the same period in 2023.

Unveiling of Economic Stabilisation/Investment Funds

In July 2024,  Tinubu unveiled a N2 trillion accelerated Economic Stabilisation and Advancement Programme targeting the revival of the economy in record six months without any hint on the source of funding.

The measures under the Economic Stabilisation Programme are as follows: Energy security, agriculture and food security, health and social welfare.

Perhaps, the only visible stabilisation fund since the president unveiled the programme is that of the Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI), a private sector-financed, phased N1 trillion real estate development fund named MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF).

Controversial Conditional Cash Transfers

The Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction, Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda revealed that 6 million Nigerians benefited from the federal government’s Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme within the past six months.

According to the minister, only 2 million Nigerians had benefited from the CCT programme over the previous nine years but explained that the ministry has since adopted a new, more efficient approach.

According to him, the president has directed that these funds be disbursed to beneficiaries within nine months. Although the ministry  said it engaged the World Bank to independently verify CCT’s beneficiaries, the problem of credibility still dogs the programme.

Over the years, many have doubted the methodology adopted in determining the beneficiaries as well as the veracity of the claims by the disbursement body. The supervising ministry itself had been enmeshed in several less-than-ennobling scandals bordering on corruption by successive leaderships.

IMF Loan Repayment

Both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the federal government recently confirmed Nigeria’s full repayment of the $3.4 billion emergency loan it secured from the multilateral lender  at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

ECOWAS Blunder

Although Tinubu’s leadership of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has seen notable ambitions, there have been significant challenges and missteps, including the belief that he mishandled the coups in Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.

In a knee-jerk response, ECOWAS under Tinubu imposed strict sanctions and threatened military intervention after the 2023 coup in Niger. This hardline stance backfired, failing to deter the military junta and leading to a backlash within West Africa and beyond.

In January 2025, Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso officially withdrew from ECOWAS, accusing the bloc of undermining their sovereignty and aligning too closely with Western interests. This marked a major blow to regional unity and was widely viewed as a failure of ECOWAS diplomacy.

Critics argue that Tinubu overestimated ECOWAS’s leverage and underestimated the depth of local support for the juntas, especially amid anti-French and anti-Western sentiment.

But the misfires aside, Tinubu has championed the creation of an ECOWAS standby force to tackle coups and terrorism, even though progress has been sluggish due to funding issues, lack of member consensus, and limited operational capacity.

On the positive note, Tinubu has consistently emphasised the importance of democratic values within the region.  He has urged ECOWAS member states to draw inspiration from Ghana’s democratic practices, highlighting the need for transparent governance and robust institutions.

The Ridiculous

Despite his modest strides in the last two years, Tinubu’s tenure has seen several decisions that critics have labeled as questionable or even “ridiculous,” especially considering their timing, execution, and public impact.

This is, perhaps, not as much about the reported allocation of N21 billion for the renovation of the Vice President’s residence, as it is the purchase of a multi-million dollar new presidential aircraft, when the nation is dealing with massive poverty and galloping inflation.

But the naming of public infrastructure such as technology innovation centre, a military barracks and an airport after the president while he is still in office has drawn significant public criticism and has been widely described as excessive, self-congratulatory, vainglorious and politically tone-deaf.

Critics argue that it is highly inappropriate for a sitting president to permit or authorise national landmarks to be named after himself, especially while his administration is ongoing and subject to public evaluation.

They contend that such honours are typically reserved for leaders who have completed their terms and whose legacies can be objectively assessed. Naming critical national assets prematurely is viewed as an attempt to institutionalise a cult of personality, echoing undemocratic tendencies that many Nigerians hoped were in the past.

Besides, the naming of a newly constructed army barracks in Asokoro, Abuja, after Tinubu, bringing the number of institutions named after him to five since he assumed office in May 2023, is seen as a moral issue even though no known law has been breached.

The Barracks, inaugurated on January 23, 2025, came shortly after the federal government approved the establishment of the Bola Ahmed Tinubu Polytechnic, Gwarinpa,  in Abuja. The trend continued when the Niger State Government in March 2024 renamed the Abubakar Imam International Airport in Minna as Bola Ahmed Tinubu International Airport, sparking outrage.

In May 2024, the National Assembly Library and Resource Centre was inaugurated and named the Bola Tinubu Building, while in December 2024, the Nigeria Immigration Service named its state-of-the-art technology complex after the president Tinubu.

Besides, there is also a proposed Bola Ahmed Tinubu Federal University of Nigerian Languages in Aba, Abia State. A bill for its establishment was introduced in the House of Representatives in October 2024.

These moves have been viewed by many as premature, self-serving, and emblematic of a political culture that often prioritises and appeal to personal vanity over institutional legacy.