Opinion Analysis News

B’Desh Army chief warns infighting may hurt sovereignty; foresees escalating turmoil?

New Delhi: Bangladesh Army chief has been a busy man since 2024 but the work is only half done. A fact that Wakar-Uz-Zaman himself acknowledged lately when he was addressing an event on Tuesday. Not only did he merely accept that Bangladesh is as unstable as it was during the start of 2024 and the condition will only worsen if nothing is done to mend it, Zaman even went on to recognise the ill effects of political infighting. He issued a stern warming to all political parties that they need to sort out this mess instead of engaging in petty blame games. Zaman underscored the importance of elections being held in the country by the end of this year, if Dhaka was looking to get back on track with civilian rule.

Zaman has been pro-stability ever since the ouster of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina from Dhaka in August last year. The chief, known for his centrist ideology is favourably inclined towards India and has a major role in preventing what he foresees could be a full-blown Islamist takeover of the country. Zaman has been strategically positioning the Army as the institution critical to maintain stability of Bangladesh, even though it is in the sidelines and the interim government makes all the key decisions on the forefront.

But with the political infighting that has again peaked in the country, raising its ugly head this time in the form of protests by student unions of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and that of Jamaat-e-Islami blaming each other for the violence that has gripped the nation, Zaman’s blueprint seems to be on shaky grounds. Hence his stern warning to stop with all this petty blame games and concentrate on the revival of civilian rule in Bangladesh by dint of a democratic elections.

While the world is following the turn of events in this South Asian country, Zaman’s warning is not to be taken lightly — for some, it signals that a coup may be imminent which would only give rise to more political unease. It is not good news for B’desh, it is not good news even from the Indian context.

Zaman’s warning, Nahid Islam’s quitting… a worrying sign?

Close at the heels of the Army Chief’s warning (issued on Tuesday) is yet another development that doesn’t spell “positive development.” For observers, student union leader Nahid Islam leaving the Yunus government to form his own political party is only bad omen. Islam’s influence in the political unrest that took over in 2024 is recognised by one and all. He was one of the most agile leaders of the movement against then PM Hasina’s policies. It was all thanks to the persistent lobbying by Nahid Islam that led other opposition parties and Islamist groups to jump in and participate in the violent protests. The student movement turned into a bigger anti-Hasina movement, one thing led to the other until protesting groups propped Muhammad Yunus as the unelected leader of Bangladesh.

However, the Yunus government was found lacking in many aspects. The instability continued, violence was unabated, diplomatic relations were awry, student demands not met with, there was confusion galore as to what should be the fabric of the country… the issues multiplied rather than being sorted. Apart from reaffirming their relations with Pakistan, there is nothing much that has been achieved by the interim government.

It is true that Yunus was an unelected leader and that too with no popular support but his policies have also been roundly criticised. Especially when he presided over cyclic violence against Hindu minorities, and started patronising Islamists in the country. This is seen as one of the reasons why Nahid Islam wanted to break away from his fold and take on the reins of a more positive political party aligned with the resumption of electoral democracy in the country. Islam’s new party (going to be revealed on Friday) is believed to push for civilian rule at the earliest.

Previously, it was Yunus who had declared that the elections could be held by the end of 2025. However, given the political volatility that prevails in the country this is a far fetched dream at best. This is what Zaman has meticulously pointed out during his Tuesday address without squarely placing the blame on any particular group. “Since stakeholders are busy mudslinging at each other, miscreants find the situation favourable. They believe they can get away with anything,” he said at the gathering, adding that these miscreants if allowed to thrive will act with impunity amid the chaos.

Reading between the lines is Zaman foreseeing another political turmoil within the country? There were some rumours about a possible coup being planned against him that would make civilian rule in Bangladesh just a fantastic idea never to take shape.

Is a coup against Zaman on the cards?

To complicate matters further there are multiple power centres that are slowly developing within the Bangladesh Army. Whether it is the pro-Islamist Lieutenant General Mohammad Faizur Rahman, or Lt Gen Mohammad Shaheenul Haque, a commandant of National Defence College, each have vested interests at play here. Not necessarily that of Bangladesh’s.

As the quarter master general of Bangladesh army, Rahman is accused to be “plotting to take over the reins of the army.” Rahman had engaged with the visiting chief of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence and its delegation to Dhaka in January which gave rise to the speculation that he may be trying to garner support from DGFI, the intelligence wing of the Bangladesh army. While Rahman would find the need to gather support (he does not command troops), Haque is in a better position to execute such a plan. Being backed by pro-Awami League Major Gen Muhammad Moin Khan, Haque has the edge over Rahman and that is making the noise of the coup more deafening.

When Zaman wants political parties to behave and act in accordance to make elections possible by year end, he could be signaling at these “miscreants” who are waiting to take advantage of the volatile environment at present in Dhaka.

Earlier it was strongly advocated that the Bangladesh Army sees itself merely as the “guardian of Bangladesh’s politics”, it was seen as an arm that had limited appetite for staying in power for a long period. It will serve us well to remember that B’Desh was under military rule between 1975 and 1990, and a military-backed government last held power for two years up to December 2008. This is when Hasina and her party the Awami League won a landslide election.

During her tenure, which lasted 16 long years, the Army had made considerable efforts to keep itself out of general politics. But that could change very quickly. And it is definitely not in the best interest for Bangladesh — a military rule is always seen as a situation that is both messy and drawn out.

General Zaman’s call for ensuring political unity should be treated with utmost care. While it is crucial for Bangladesh’s stability and sovereignty, but even New Delhi will be wary of the developments. Potential for military rule in its neighbouring country is not harbinger of good news as it could destabilise regional security and affect bilateral relations.

Both Dhaka and Delhi can do without this mess.